Odainn
Infections

Who dies of COVID-19?

In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 1.8% of men and 1.5% of women eventually die of COVID-19. It is never the most likely cause of death for any one country, sex and age group — but it adds up over a lifetime.

The risk by age

Chance of dying of COVID-19 within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.

Agemenwomen
15–19<0.01% (0.28% of the risk)<0.01% (0.46% of the risk)
20–24<0.01% (0.27% of the risk)<0.01% (0.30% of the risk)
25–29<0.01% (0.32% of the risk)<0.01% (0.42% of the risk)
30–34<0.01% (0.31% of the risk)<0.01% (0.49% of the risk)
35–39<0.01% (0.35% of the risk)<0.01% (0.49% of the risk)
40–440.01% (0.41% of the risk)<0.01% (0.45% of the risk)
45–490.02% (0.51% of the risk)0.01% (0.57% of the risk)
50–540.05% (0.68% of the risk)0.02% (0.70% of the risk)
55–590.09% (0.85% of the risk)0.05% (0.84% of the risk)
60–640.17% (0.99% of the risk)0.10% (1.1% of the risk)
65–690.35% (1.4% of the risk)0.20% (1.3% of the risk)
70–740.69% (1.9% of the risk)0.37% (1.4% of the risk)
75–791.2% (2.3% of the risk)0.69% (1.6% of the risk)
80–841.8% (2.6% of the risk)1.1% (1.7% of the risk)
85–892.4% (2.7% of the risk)1.5% (1.7% of the risk)
90–942.7% (2.8% of the risk)1.6% (1.7% of the risk)

Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries

  1. Greece5.3%
  2. Finland4.5%
  3. Norway3.8%
  4. Austria3.6%
  5. Germany3.1%
  6. Sweden3.0%
  7. France3.0%
  8. Italy3.0%
  9. Portugal2.6%
  10. Canada2.6%
  11. Malta0.61%
  12. Latvia0.53%
  13. Türkiye0.47%

Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries

  1. Greece5.0%
  2. Finland3.3%
  3. Austria3.1%
  4. Norway3.0%
  5. France2.6%
  6. Germany2.3%
  7. Italy2.2%
  8. Canada2.2%
  9. Portugal2.2%
  10. Ireland2.2%
  11. Malta0.48%
  12. Latvia0.41%
  13. Türkiye0.35%

What changes the odds

Vaccination — especially the doses recommended each season for older people and those with long-term conditions — lowers the risk of severe illness and death.

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Related: Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)

Questions

At what age is COVID-19 most likely to be the cause of death?
For men, COVID-19 takes its largest share of deaths at 90–94: 2.8% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
Which country has the highest risk of dying of COVID-19?
Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Greece has the highest lifetime chance of dying of COVID-19 for men (5.3%), and Türkiye the lowest (0.47%).

Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.