Odainn
Cancers

Who dies of oesophageal cancer?

In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 0.68% of men and 0.19% of women eventually die of oesophageal cancer. It is never the most likely cause of death for any one country, sex and age group — but it adds up over a lifetime.

The risk by age

Chance of dying of oesophageal cancer within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.

Agemenwomen
15–190% (0% of the risk)0% (0% of the risk)
20–24<0.01% (0.04% of the risk)0% (0% of the risk)
25–29<0.01% (0.16% of the risk)<0.01% (0.02% of the risk)
30–34<0.01% (0.27% of the risk)<0.01% (0.13% of the risk)
35–390.01% (0.59% of the risk)<0.01% (0.21% of the risk)
40–440.03% (0.90% of the risk)<0.01% (0.30% of the risk)
45–490.06% (1.3% of the risk)<0.01% (0.39% of the risk)
50–540.10% (1.5% of the risk)0.02% (0.46% of the risk)
55–590.16% (1.5% of the risk)0.03% (0.50% of the risk)
60–640.22% (1.4% of the risk)0.05% (0.44% of the risk)
65–690.26% (1.2% of the risk)0.06% (0.37% of the risk)
70–740.27% (0.80% of the risk)0.06% (0.26% of the risk)
75–790.26% (0.50% of the risk)0.07% (0.17% of the risk)
80–840.21% (0.30% of the risk)0.07% (0.11% of the risk)
85–890.16% (0.18% of the risk)0.06% (0.07% of the risk)
90–940.09% (0.10% of the risk)0.04% (0.04% of the risk)

Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries

  1. Netherlands1.6%
  2. United Kingdom1.5%
  3. Iceland1.3%
  4. Ireland1.2%
  5. Denmark0.99%
  6. Luxembourg0.96%
  7. Canada0.91%
  8. Lithuania0.90%
  9. Belgium0.84%
  10. Germany0.83%
  11. Bulgaria0.28%
  12. Türkiye0.16%
  13. Cyprus0.15%

Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries

  1. Ireland0.82%
  2. United Kingdom0.68%
  3. Netherlands0.61%
  4. Denmark0.38%
  5. Belgium0.37%
  6. Luxembourg0.37%
  7. Finland0.30%
  8. Switzerland0.29%
  9. Sweden0.29%
  10. Norway0.28%
  11. Bulgaria0.08%
  12. Moldova0.06%
  13. Cyprus0.04%

What changes the odds

Not smoking, keeping alcohol low, a healthy weight — and letting hot drinks cool a little — lower the risk. Problems swallowing, losing weight without trying, or heartburn most days for 3 weeks or more are reasons to see a doctor.

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Related: Lung cancer · Colorectal cancer · Breast cancer · Prostate cancer · Pancreatic cancer · Stomach cancer · Liver cancer · Cervical cancer · Uterine & ovarian cancer · Leukaemia & lymphoma · Brain cancer · Melanoma (skin cancer) · Kidney cancer · Bladder cancer · Mouth, throat & larynx cancer · Other cancers

Questions

At what age is oesophageal cancer most likely to be the cause of death?
For men, oesophageal cancer takes its largest share of deaths at 55–59: 1.5% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
Which country has the highest risk of dying of oesophageal cancer?
Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Netherlands has the highest lifetime chance of dying of oesophageal cancer for men (1.6%), and Cyprus the lowest (0.15%).
What raises the risk of dying of oesophageal cancer?
In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 3.9 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).

Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.