Who dies of liver disease?
In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 1.4% of men and 0.71% of women eventually die of liver disease. It is the most likely cause of death in 30 of their 1,152 country, sex and age groups.
The risk by age
Chance of dying of liver disease within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.
| Age | men | women |
|---|---|---|
| 15–19 | <0.01% (0.23% of the risk) | <0.01% (0.02% of the risk) |
| 20–24 | <0.01% (0.77% of the risk) | <0.01% (0.74% of the risk) |
| 25–29 | 0.02% (2.6% of the risk) | <0.01% (2.4% of the risk) |
| 30–34 | 0.05% (4.1% of the risk) | 0.02% (4.3% of the risk) |
| 35–39 | 0.08% (5.0% of the risk) | 0.04% (4.4% of the risk) |
| 40–44 | 0.15% (6.0% of the risk) | 0.06% (4.8% of the risk) |
| 45–49 | 0.24% (5.9% of the risk) | 0.10% (4.4% of the risk) |
| 50–54 | 0.35% (5.1% of the risk) | 0.14% (3.9% of the risk) |
| 55–59 | 0.43% (4.0% of the risk) | 0.16% (2.9% of the risk) |
| 60–64 | 0.46% (3.0% of the risk) | 0.19% (2.0% of the risk) |
| 65–69 | 0.44% (1.9% of the risk) | 0.20% (1.3% of the risk) |
| 70–74 | 0.36% (1.1% of the risk) | 0.17% (0.71% of the risk) |
| 75–79 | 0.30% (0.59% of the risk) | 0.16% (0.38% of the risk) |
| 80–84 | 0.23% (0.30% of the risk) | 0.12% (0.20% of the risk) |
| 85–89 | 0.15% (0.17% of the risk) | 0.08% (0.10% of the risk) |
| 90–94 | 0.09% (0.10% of the risk) | 0.05% (0.05% of the risk) |
Where it's the most likely cause of death
- Men 25–29: Moldova
- Men 30–34: Moldova, Slovakia
- Men 35–39: Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova, Slovakia
- Men 40–44: Estonia, Poland
- Women 25–29: Moldova, Poland, Slovakia
- Women 30–34: Czechia, Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Slovakia
- Women 35–39: Czechia, Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova, Slovakia
- Women 40–44: Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova
- Women 45–49: Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova
- Women 50–54: Estonia
Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries
Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries
What changes the odds
- Heavy drinkers: about 5.3 times as often as people who don't drink.
- People with obesity (a BMI of 30 or more): about 3.8 times as often as people of healthy weight.
- In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 2.0 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).
Weight, exercise, alcohol and diet at age 55, from the published studies behind Odainn's personal numbers — methodology.
What you can do
- Keep alcohol low, with several alcohol-free days a week.
- A healthy weight prevents fatty liver disease.
- Get vaccinated against hepatitis B, and tested once for hepatitis C — it's curable.
Act fast: Yellow skin or eyes, vomiting blood, or black, tar-like poo: get urgent medical help.
Sources: EASL clinical practice guidelines; WHO: Hepatitis B and hepatitis C (fact sheets); NHS: Cirrhosis. General guidance, not medical advice.
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Related: Other digestive disease
Questions
- At what age is liver disease most likely to be the cause of death?
- For men, liver disease takes its largest share of deaths at 40–44: 6.0% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
- Which country has the highest risk of dying of liver disease?
- Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Moldova has the highest lifetime chance of dying of liver disease for men (5.4%), and Türkiye the lowest (0.48%).
- What raises the risk of dying of liver disease?
- Heavy drinkers: about 5.3 times as often as people who don't drink. People with obesity (a BMI of 30 or more): about 3.8 times as often as people of healthy weight. In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 2.0 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015).
Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.