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Free risk check · real data

What is a 17-year-old boy in Canada most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.04%
1 in 2,254
Next 10 years
0.68%
1 in 147
Life expectancy
80
about 63 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Accidental poisoning & overdose28%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  2. 02Suicide22%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  3. 03Road accidents16%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  4. 04Homicide4.4%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  5. 05Other accidents3.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  6. 06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  7. 07Other cancers2.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  8. 08Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)2.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
Show the other 31 causes18% together
  1. 09Drowning1.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  2. 10Heart failure & other heart disease1.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  3. 11Congenital conditions1.6%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  4. 12Other causes1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  5. 13Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  6. 14Other digestive disease1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  7. 15Brain cancer1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  8. 16Diabetes1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  9. 17Pneumonia & flu0.78%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  10. 18Falls0.76%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  11. 19Stroke0.66%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  12. 20Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  13. 21Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  14. 22High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.58%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  15. 23Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.54%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  16. 24Alcohol use disorder0.42%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  17. 25Colorectal cancer0.29%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  18. 26COVID-190.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  19. 27Other lung disease0.26%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  20. 28Kidney disease0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  21. 29Drug use disorder0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  22. 30Liver cancer0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  23. 31Stomach cancer0.16%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.66%
  24. 32COPD & chronic lung disease0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  25. 33Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  26. 34Other mental health conditions0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  27. 35Complications around birth0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  28. 36Kidney cancer0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  29. 37Lung cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
  30. 38Pancreatic cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  31. 39Melanoma (skin cancer)0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide Crisis Helpline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Canada, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Canada (2023–2024), Statistics Canada. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 15–19 in Canada

How long people like this live: life expectancy.