Odainn
Heart & circulation

Who dies of heart attack & coronary heart disease?

In the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, 13% of men and 9.9% of women eventually die of heart attack & coronary heart disease. It is the most likely cause of death in 340 of their 1,152 country, sex and age groups.

The risk by age

Chance of dying of heart attack & coronary heart disease within 10 years, and its share of all the risk at that age — the median of 36 countries. Your own country's numbers are one click away on its page.

Agemenwomen
15–19<0.01% (0.65% of the risk)<0.01% (0.37% of the risk)
20–240.01% (1.5% of the risk)<0.01% (0.86% of the risk)
25–290.03% (3.3% of the risk)<0.01% (1.7% of the risk)
30–340.07% (6.0% of the risk)0.01% (2.2% of the risk)
35–390.15% (8.9% of the risk)0.03% (2.9% of the risk)
40–440.32% (11% of the risk)0.05% (3.7% of the risk)
45–490.55% (13% of the risk)0.10% (4.8% of the risk)
50–540.88% (14% of the risk)0.19% (5.9% of the risk)
55–591.5% (15% of the risk)0.36% (7.0% of the risk)
60–642.1% (14% of the risk)0.68% (7.8% of the risk)
65–693.3% (13% of the risk)1.2% (8.1% of the risk)
70–744.5% (13% of the risk)2.1% (8.9% of the risk)
75–797.0% (13% of the risk)4.0% (9.6% of the risk)
80–8410% (13% of the risk)7.0% (10% of the risk)
85–8913% (14% of the risk)9.4% (11% of the risk)
90–9414% (15% of the risk)11% (12% of the risk)

Where it's the most likely cause of death

Lifetime chance, men: highest and lowest countries

  1. Moldova32%
  2. Lithuania30%
  3. Slovakia26%
  4. Hungary23%
  5. Latvia23%
  6. Malta18%
  7. Czechia18%
  8. Romania18%
  9. Poland18%
  10. Türkiye17%
  11. France6.5%
  12. Portugal6.5%
  13. Netherlands6.4%

Lifetime chance, women: highest and lowest countries

  1. Moldova41%
  2. Lithuania36%
  3. Slovakia32%
  4. Latvia25%
  5. Hungary25%
  6. Poland21%
  7. Romania20%
  8. Czechia18%
  9. Estonia17%
  10. Türkiye17%
  11. Belgium4.4%
  12. France4.1%
  13. Netherlands4.0%

What changes the odds

Weight, exercise, alcohol and diet at age 55, from the published studies behind Odainn's personal numbers — methodology.

What you can do

  • Don't smoke — the extra heart risk starts falling as soon as you stop.
  • Know your blood pressure and cholesterol, and treat them if they're high — your doctor can work out your heart-risk score.
  • Move at least 2½ hours a week, keep a healthy weight, and eat plenty of vegetables, fruit, fish and whole grains.
  • If you have diabetes, keeping it under control protects your heart.

Act fast: Chest pain or pressure that may spread to the arm, jaw, neck or back, with breathlessness, sweating or feeling sick: call your emergency number now — don't drive yourself.

Sources: 2021 ESC Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention; NHS: Heart attack — symptoms. General guidance, not medical advice.

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Related: Heart failure & other heart disease · Stroke · High blood pressure & other circulatory disease

Questions

At what age is heart attack & coronary heart disease most likely to be the cause of death?
For men, heart attack & coronary heart disease takes its largest share of deaths at 90–94: 15% of the risk of dying in the next 10 years, in the median of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age.
Which country has the highest risk of dying of heart attack & coronary heart disease?
Of the 36 countries that publish causes of death by age, Moldova has the highest lifetime chance of dying of heart attack & coronary heart disease for men (32%), and Netherlands the lowest (6.4%).
What raises the risk of dying of heart attack & coronary heart disease?
In large cohort studies, people who smoke died of it about 2.6 times as often as people who never smoked (Carter 2015). People with obesity (a BMI of 30 or more): about 2.1 times as often as people of healthy weight.

Computed by Odainn from official mortality statistics (Eurostat; ONS, NRS and NISRA; CDC; Statistics Canada) for 36 countries, latest years — how we calculate. Belarus is left out: deaths by cause and age aren't published together there, so the split by cause is our estimate. Population statistics, not a prediction for any individual. Educational, not medical advice.