Odainn

What are men aged 40–44 in Germany most likely to die from?

For a 42-year-old man in Germany, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart attack & coronary heart disease, liver disease and suicide — together 25% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.16% (1 in 643); over 10 years it is 2.5%.

Next 12 months
0.16%
1 in 643
Next 10 years
2.5%
1 in 41
Life expectancy
80
about 38 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease9.8%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  2. 02Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)8.1%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  3. 03Suicide7.2%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  4. 04Heart failure & other heart disease4.9%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.1%
  5. 05High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.9%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%
  6. 06Lung cancer4.4%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  7. 07Alcohol use disorder4.2%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.74%
  8. 08Other cancers3.8%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  9. 09Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.6%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  10. 10Other causes3.5%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
Show the other 35 causes46% together
  1. 11Other digestive disease3.4%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  2. 12Colorectal cancer3.2%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  3. 13Stroke3.2%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  4. 14Diabetes2.4%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  5. 15Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.3%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  6. 16Brain cancer2.2%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  7. 17Road accidents2.2%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  8. 18Leukaemia & lymphoma2.0%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  9. 19Pancreatic cancer2.0%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  10. 20Other accidents2.0%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.95%
  11. 21Accidental poisoning & overdose1.8%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  12. 22Drug use disorder1.8%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  13. 23COPD & chronic lung disease1.6%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  14. 24Stomach cancer1.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
  15. 25Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
  16. 26Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.4%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  17. 27Falls1.3%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  18. 28Other mental health conditions1.2%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  19. 29Oesophageal cancer1.1%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.84%
  20. 30Pneumonia & flu1.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  21. 31Liver cancer0.89%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  22. 32Other lung disease0.86%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  23. 33COVID-190.71%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  24. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.71%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  25. 35Kidney disease0.69%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  26. 36Congenital conditions0.62%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  27. 37Kidney cancer0.58%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  28. 38Prostate cancer0.38%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  29. 39Homicide0.28%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  30. 40Bladder cancer0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  31. 41Drowning0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  32. 42Complications around birth0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  33. 43Breast cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  34. 44Dementia & Alzheimer's0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
  35. 45Parkinson's disease0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 42-year-old man in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 42-year-old man in Germany

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 40–44 in Germany?
Heart attack & coronary heart disease: 9.8% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 42-year-old man in Germany, followed by liver disease and suicide.
What is the chance that a 42-year-old man in Germany dies in the next year?
0.16% (1 in 643). Over the next 10 years it is 2.5% (1 in 41).
How long can a 42-year-old man in Germany expect to live?
On average, to about 80 — around 38 more years, based on Germany's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 42-year-old man in Germany?
Blood pressure check; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Skin cancer check; Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Germany (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.