Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in Germany most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Germany, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, road accidents and accidental poisoning & overdose — together 49% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.03% (1 in 3,231); over 10 years it is 0.40%.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 3,231
Next 10 years
0.40%
1 in 252
Life expectancy
79
about 62 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide24%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  2. 02Road accidents18%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  3. 03Accidental poisoning & overdose7.2%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)6.8%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  5. 05Other cancers4.2%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  6. 06Other accidents4.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.99%
  7. 07Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)3.6%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  8. 08Drug use disorder3.2%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  9. 09Leukaemia & lymphoma2.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  10. 10Other causes2.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
Show the other 32 causes23% together
  1. 11Congenital conditions2.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  2. 12Heart failure & other heart disease2.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.0%
  3. 13Drowning1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  4. 14Falls1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  5. 15Brain cancer1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.61%
  6. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  7. 17Other digestive disease1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  8. 18Other mental health conditions1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  9. 19Homicide1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  10. 20High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.97%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  11. 21Stroke0.97%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  12. 22Pneumonia & flu0.73%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  13. 23Other lung disease0.71%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  14. 24Diabetes0.64%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  15. 25Colorectal cancer0.54%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  16. 26COVID-190.51%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  17. 27Alcohol use disorder0.51%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.77%
  18. 28Liver cancer0.43%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  19. 29COPD & chronic lung disease0.43%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  20. 30Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  21. 31Complications around birth0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  22. 32Kidney disease0.31%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  23. 33Melanoma (skin cancer)0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  24. 34Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  25. 35Lung cancer0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  26. 36Stomach cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  27. 37Oesophageal cancer0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  28. 38Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  29. 39Prostate cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  30. 40Kidney cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  31. 41Bladder cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.85%
  32. 42Dementia & Alzheimer's0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Germany?
Suicide: 24% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Germany, followed by road accidents and accidental poisoning & overdose.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Germany dies in the next year?
0.03% (1 in 3,231). Over the next 10 years it is 0.40% (1 in 252).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Germany expect to live?
On average, to about 79 — around 62 more years, based on Germany's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Germany (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.