Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in Italy most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Italy, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are road accidents, suicide and other neurological disease — together 55% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.03% (1 in 3,935); over 10 years it is 0.37%.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 3,935
Next 10 years
0.37%
1 in 272
Life expectancy
81
about 64 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents32%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
  2. 02Suicide18%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  3. 03Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)5.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  4. 04Other cancers4.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  5. 05Other accidents4.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  6. 06Heart failure & other heart disease3.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.6%
  7. 07Leukaemia & lymphoma3.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  8. 08Congenital conditions3.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  9. 09Falls2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  10. 10Other causes2.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
Show the other 29 causes20% together
  1. 11Drowning2.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  2. 12Brain cancer2.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  3. 13High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.1%
  4. 14Homicide1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  5. 15Stroke1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.1%
  6. 16Accidental poisoning & overdose1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  7. 17Pneumonia & flu0.98%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  8. 18Other lung disease0.94%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  9. 19Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.94%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  10. 20Other digestive disease0.92%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  11. 21Liver cancer0.76%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  12. 22Drug use disorder0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  13. 23Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.51%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.7%
  14. 24Melanoma (skin cancer)0.43%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  15. 25Colorectal cancer0.43%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  16. 26Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  17. 27Stomach cancer0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  18. 28COVID-190.35%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  19. 29Complications around birth0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  20. 30Other mental health conditions0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
  21. 31COPD & chronic lung disease0.24%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  22. 32Lung cancer0.18%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.2%
  23. 33Pancreatic cancer0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  24. 34Diabetes0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  25. 35Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  26. 36Prostate cancer0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  27. 37Parkinson's disease0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  28. 38Kidney disease0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  29. 39Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Telefono Amico on 02 2327 2327 (normal call rate) — confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Italy, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Italy (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.
Embed this on your site

Free to use with the link back. The image updates when the data does.

These are averages. You aren't average.

Smoking, exercise, weight, alcohol and diet change these numbers. Get your personal numbers and the changes that give you the most years back — free.

Get your numbersTry another age

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Italy?
Road accidents: 32% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Italy, followed by suicide and other neurological disease.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Italy dies in the next year?
0.03% (1 in 3,935). Over the next 10 years it is 0.37% (1 in 272).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Italy expect to live?
On average, to about 81 — around 64 more years, based on Italy's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Italy (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.