Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in the Netherlands most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in the Netherlands, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, road accidents and other neurological disease — together 59% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.03% (1 in 3,396); over 10 years it is 0.38%.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 3,396
Next 10 years
0.38%
1 in 265
Life expectancy
81
about 64 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide34%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  2. 02Road accidents18%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  3. 03Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)7.2%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  4. 04Accidental poisoning & overdose5.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  5. 05Other cancers3.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  6. 06Other causes3.2%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  7. 07Leukaemia & lymphoma3.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  8. 08Homicide2.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  9. 09Heart failure & other heart disease2.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
  10. 10Congenital conditions2.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
Show the other 24 causes18% together
  1. 11Drowning2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  2. 12Falls2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  3. 13Brain cancer2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  4. 14Other mental health conditions1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  5. 15Pneumonia & flu1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  6. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 17Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  8. 18Other digestive disease1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  9. 19Colorectal cancer0.78%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  10. 20Stroke0.73%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
  11. 21Other accidents0.67%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  12. 22High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.58%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  13. 23Alcohol use disorder0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  14. 24Lung cancer0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.9%
  15. 25Diabetes0.30%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  16. 26Drug use disorder0.24%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  17. 27Liver cancer0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  18. 28Kidney disease0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  19. 29COPD & chronic lung disease0.16%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  20. 30Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  21. 31Stomach cancer0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
  22. 32Melanoma (skin cancer)0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  23. 33Other lung disease0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  24. 34COVID-190.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 113, 113 Zelfmoordpreventie — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in the Netherlands, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the Netherlands (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in the Netherlands?
Suicide: 34% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in the Netherlands, followed by road accidents and other neurological disease.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in the Netherlands dies in the next year?
0.03% (1 in 3,396). Over the next 10 years it is 0.38% (1 in 265).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in the Netherlands expect to live?
On average, to about 81 — around 64 more years, based on the Netherlands' current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for the Netherlands (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.