Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in the United States most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in the United States, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are road accidents, suicide and accidental poisoning & overdose — together 59% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.08% (1 in 1,296); over 10 years it is 1.2%.

Next 12 months
0.08%
1 in 1,296
Next 10 years
1.2%
1 in 86
Life expectancy
77
about 60 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents21%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  2. 02Suicide20%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  3. 03Accidental poisoning & overdose17%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  4. 04Homicide17%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  5. 05Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.9%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  6. 06Other accidents2.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  7. 07Heart failure & other heart disease1.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.8%
  8. 08Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  9. 09Other cancers1.7%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  10. 10Other causes1.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
Show the other 35 causes13% together
  1. 11Drowning1.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  2. 12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.98%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  3. 13Congenital conditions0.97%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  4. 14Leukaemia & lymphoma0.91%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  5. 15Diabetes0.87%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  6. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.83%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  7. 17Other digestive disease0.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  8. 18Brain cancer0.61%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  9. 19Falls0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  10. 20COPD & chronic lung disease0.54%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  11. 21Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.53%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  12. 22Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.48%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  13. 23Stroke0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  14. 24Pneumonia & flu0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  15. 25Other lung disease0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  16. 26Alcohol use disorder0.39%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  17. 27COVID-190.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  18. 28Drug use disorder0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  19. 29Kidney disease0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  20. 30Colorectal cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  21. 31Other mental health conditions0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  22. 32Liver cancer0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  23. 33Kidney cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  24. 34Lung cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  25. 35Stomach cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  26. 36Melanoma (skin cancer)0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  27. 37Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  28. 38Pancreatic cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  29. 39Oesophageal cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  30. 40Complications around birth0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  31. 41Prostate cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  32. 42Bladder cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
  33. 43Breast cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  34. 44Parkinson's disease<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  35. 45Dementia & Alzheimer's<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in the United States?
Road accidents: 21% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in the United States, followed by suicide and accidental poisoning & overdose.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in the United States dies in the next year?
0.08% (1 in 1,296). Over the next 10 years it is 1.2% (1 in 86).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in the United States expect to live?
On average, to about 77 — around 60 more years, based on the United States' current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official CDC mortality statistics for the United States (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.