Odainn

What are men aged 20–24 in the United States most likely to die from?

For a 22-year-old man in the United States, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are accidental poisoning & overdose, suicide and road accidents — together 59% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.12% (1 in 810); over 10 years it is 1.6%.

Next 12 months
0.12%
1 in 810
Next 10 years
1.6%
1 in 62
Life expectancy
77
about 55 more years on average
The surpriseAt 22, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Accidental poisoning & overdose25%
    0.40% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  2. 02Suicide17%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  3. 03Road accidents17%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  4. 04Homicide12%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  5. 05Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  6. 06Heart failure & other heart disease2.2%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.8%
  7. 07Other accidents1.9%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  8. 08Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.8%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  9. 09Other causes1.8%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  10. 10High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.8%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
Show the other 35 causes17% together
  1. 11Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)1.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  2. 12Other cancers1.4%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  3. 13Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  4. 14Diabetes1.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  5. 15Heart attack & coronary heart disease1.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  6. 16Other digestive disease1.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  7. 17Alcohol use disorder1.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.55%
  8. 18Drowning1.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  9. 19Leukaemia & lymphoma0.80%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  10. 20Congenital conditions0.72%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  11. 21Stroke0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  12. 22Pneumonia & flu0.58%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  13. 23Falls0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  14. 24Brain cancer0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  15. 25Other lung disease0.50%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  16. 26COPD & chronic lung disease0.47%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  17. 27Drug use disorder0.42%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  18. 28Kidney disease0.36%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  19. 29Colorectal cancer0.35%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  20. 30COVID-190.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  21. 31Stomach cancer0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  22. 32Lung cancer0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  23. 33Liver cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  24. 34Other mental health conditions0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  25. 35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  26. 36Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  27. 37Kidney cancer0.08%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  28. 38Pancreatic cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  29. 39Oesophageal cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.71%
  30. 40Bladder cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  31. 41Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  32. 42Prostate cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  33. 43Parkinson's disease<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  34. 44Breast cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  35. 45Dementia & Alzheimer's<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 22-year-old man in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 22-year-old man in the United States

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 20–24 in the United States?
Accidental poisoning & overdose: 25% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 22-year-old man in the United States, followed by suicide and road accidents.
What is the chance that a 22-year-old man in the United States dies in the next year?
0.12% (1 in 810). Over the next 10 years it is 1.6% (1 in 62).
How long can a 22-year-old man in the United States expect to live?
On average, to about 77 — around 55 more years, based on the United States' current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 22-year-old man in the United States?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Hepatitis C test; HIV test. Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official CDC mortality statistics for the United States (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.