Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in Belgium most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Belgium, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, road accidents and other accidents — together 56% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.02% (1 in 4,345); over 10 years it is 0.36%.

Next 12 months
0.02%
1 in 4,345
Next 10 years
0.36%
1 in 275
Life expectancy
81
about 64 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide27%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  2. 02Road accidents21%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  3. 03Other accidents7.7%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  4. 04Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)4.2%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
  5. 05Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  6. 06Drowning3.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  7. 07Accidental poisoning & overdose3.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  8. 08Homicide3.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  9. 09Falls3.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  10. 10Leukaemia & lymphoma2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
Show the other 22 causes19% together
  1. 11Other cancers2.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  2. 12Congenital conditions2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  3. 13Heart failure & other heart disease2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  4. 14Other lung disease1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  5. 15Brain cancer1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
  6. 16Drug use disorder1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  7. 17Other digestive disease1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  8. 18Other causes0.85%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  9. 19COVID-190.80%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  10. 20High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.70%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  11. 21Lung cancer0.70%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.1%
  12. 22Stomach cancer0.55%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.68%
  13. 23Other mental health conditions0.55%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  14. 24Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.1%
  15. 25Alcohol use disorder0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  16. 26Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  17. 27Liver cancer0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  18. 28Diabetes0.30%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  19. 29Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.30%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  20. 30Stroke0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  21. 31COPD & chronic lung disease0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.5%
  22. 32Pneumonia & flu0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 1813 (Zelfmoordlijn) or 0800 32 123 (Centre de Prévention du Suicide) — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Belgium, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Belgium (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Belgium?
Suicide: 27% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Belgium, followed by road accidents and other accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Belgium dies in the next year?
0.02% (1 in 4,345). Over the next 10 years it is 0.36% (1 in 275).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Belgium expect to live?
On average, to about 81 — around 64 more years, based on Belgium's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Belgium (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.