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What are men aged 15–19 in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Bulgaria, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are road accidents, heart failure & other heart disease and other injuries — together 45% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.05% (1 in 1,892); over 10 years it is 0.80%.

Next 12 months
0.05%
1 in 1,892
Next 10 years
0.80%
1 in 125
Life expectancy
73
about 56 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents25%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease10%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 20%
  3. 03Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)9.0%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  4. 04Suicide7.7%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
  5. 05Pneumonia & flu4.7%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  6. 06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)4.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  7. 07Drowning4.0%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  8. 08Other accidents2.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  9. 09Other lung disease2.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  10. 10Stroke2.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
Show the other 20 causes26% together
  1. 11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  2. 12Other cancers2.7%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  3. 13Other digestive disease2.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  4. 14Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  5. 15Heart attack & coronary heart disease2.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  6. 16Homicide1.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  7. 17Falls1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
  8. 18Accidental poisoning & overdose1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  9. 19Congenital conditions1.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  10. 20Kidney disease1.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  11. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  12. 22COVID-190.91%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  13. 23Other causes0.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  14. 24Stomach cancer0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  15. 25Brain cancer0.47%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  16. 26Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.47%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  17. 27Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  18. 28Liver cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  19. 29Melanoma (skin cancer)0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  20. 30Diabetes0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Bulgaria?
Road accidents: 25% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Bulgaria, followed by heart failure & other heart disease and other injuries.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Bulgaria dies in the next year?
0.05% (1 in 1,892). Over the next 10 years it is 0.80% (1 in 125).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Bulgaria expect to live?
On average, to about 73 — around 56 more years, based on Bulgaria's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Bulgaria (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.