Odainn

What are men aged 75–79 in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

For a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart failure & other heart disease, stroke and heart attack & coronary heart disease — together 56% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 6.5% (1 in 15); over 10 years it is 65%.

Next 12 months
6.5%
1 in 15
Next 10 years
65%
about 7 in 10
Life expectancy
85
about 8 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease22%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 23%
  2. 02Stroke21%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 22%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
    8.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease12%
    7.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  5. 05Prostate cancer2.9%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  6. 06Colorectal cancer2.8%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 07Lung cancer2.7%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  8. 08Pneumonia & flu2.7%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  9. 09Other digestive disease2.6%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  10. 10Kidney disease2.1%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
Show the other 32 causes16% together
  1. 11COVID-191.7%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  2. 12Other cancers1.6%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  3. 13COPD & chronic lung disease1.5%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  4. 14Other lung disease1.5%
    0.99% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  5. 15Diabetes1.4%
    0.90% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  6. 16Bladder cancer1.1%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
  7. 17Stomach cancer0.92%
    0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  8. 18Pancreatic cancer0.78%
    0.51% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  9. 19Leukaemia & lymphoma0.67%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  10. 20Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.66%
    0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  11. 21Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.63%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  12. 22Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.43%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
  13. 23Liver cancer0.41%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  14. 24Suicide0.35%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  15. 25Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.34%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  16. 26Kidney cancer0.33%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  17. 27Falls0.31%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  18. 28Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.30%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  19. 29Brain cancer0.27%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  20. 30Parkinson's disease0.25%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  21. 31Other causes0.21%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  22. 32Other accidents0.19%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  23. 33Road accidents0.16%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  24. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.14%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  25. 35Oesophageal cancer0.14%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  26. 36Dementia & Alzheimer's0.09%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  27. 37Breast cancer0.06%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  28. 38Drowning0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  29. 39Accidental poisoning & overdose0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 40Homicide0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  31. 41Other mental health conditions0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  32. 42Alcohol use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 75–79 in Bulgaria?
Heart failure & other heart disease: 22% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria, followed by stroke and heart attack & coronary heart disease.
What is the chance that a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria dies in the next year?
6.5% (1 in 15). Over the next 10 years it is 65% (about 7 in 10).
How long can a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria expect to live?
On average, to about 85 — around 8 more years, based on Bulgaria's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 77-year-old man in Bulgaria?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Prostate cancer test (PSA); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Bulgaria (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.