Odainn

What are men aged 85–89 in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old man in Bulgaria, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart failure & other heart disease, stroke and heart attack & coronary heart disease — together 64% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 15% (about 2 in 10); over 10 years it is 93%.

Next 12 months
15%
about 2 in 10
Next 10 years
93%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
91
about 4 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease26%
    25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 27%
  2. 02Stroke24%
    22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 24%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease14%
    13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease14%
    13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  5. 05Pneumonia & flu2.7%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  6. 06Prostate cancer2.4%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  7. 07Other digestive disease1.9%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  8. 08COVID-191.8%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  9. 09Kidney disease1.7%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  10. 10Other lung disease1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
Show the other 31 causes10% together
  1. 11Colorectal cancer1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  2. 12COPD & chronic lung disease1.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  3. 13Other cancers0.94%
    0.87% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  4. 14Diabetes0.90%
    0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  5. 15Lung cancer0.67%
    0.62% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  6. 16Bladder cancer0.54%
    0.50% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
  7. 17Pancreatic cancer0.44%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  8. 18Stomach cancer0.43%
    0.40% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  9. 19Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.37%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  10. 20Leukaemia & lymphoma0.33%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  11. 21Falls0.31%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  12. 22Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.23%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  13. 23Other causes0.21%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  14. 24Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.20%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  15. 25Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.20%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  16. 26Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.19%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  17. 27Parkinson's disease0.18%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  18. 28Suicide0.18%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  19. 29Other accidents0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  20. 30Liver cancer0.13%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  21. 31Melanoma (skin cancer)0.13%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  22. 32Dementia & Alzheimer's0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  23. 33Kidney cancer0.09%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  24. 34Brain cancer0.08%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  25. 35Road accidents0.08%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  26. 36Drowning0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  27. 37Breast cancer0.05%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  28. 38Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  29. 39Oesophageal cancer0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  30. 40Homicide0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  31. 41Other mental health conditions<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like an 87-year-old man in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Bulgaria

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 85–89 in Bulgaria?
Heart failure & other heart disease: 26% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old man in Bulgaria, followed by stroke and heart attack & coronary heart disease.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old man in Bulgaria dies in the next year?
15% (about 2 in 10). Over the next 10 years it is 93% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old man in Bulgaria expect to live?
On average, to about 91 — around 4 more years, based on Bulgaria's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old man in Bulgaria?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Prostate cancer test (PSA); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Bulgaria (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.