Odainn

What are men aged 85–89 in France most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old man in France, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart failure & other heart disease, dementia & Alzheimer's and heart attack & coronary heart disease — together 26% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 9.7% (1 in 10); over 10 years it is 86%.

Next 12 months
9.7%
1 in 10
Next 10 years
86%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
93
about 6 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease13%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  2. 02Dementia & Alzheimer's6.6%
    5.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.6%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease6.5%
    5.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  4. 04Other causes6.1%
    5.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  5. 05Stroke5.4%
    4.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
  6. 06Pneumonia & flu4.9%
    4.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  7. 07High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.8%
    4.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  8. 08Other cancers4.7%
    4.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.6%
  9. 09COVID-194.3%
    3.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  10. 10Prostate cancer4.2%
    3.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
Show the other 34 causes40% together
  1. 11Other lung disease4.1%
    3.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  2. 12Other digestive disease3.7%
    3.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  3. 13Falls3.0%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  4. 14Other accidents3.0%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  5. 15Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.8%
    2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  6. 16Kidney disease2.3%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 17Diabetes2.3%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  8. 18COPD & chronic lung disease2.2%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  9. 19Colorectal cancer2.2%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  10. 20Leukaemia & lymphoma2.1%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  11. 21Lung cancer2.1%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  12. 22Parkinson's disease1.7%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  13. 23Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.5%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  14. 24Bladder cancer1.4%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  15. 25Pancreatic cancer0.97%
    0.83% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
  16. 26Liver cancer0.70%
    0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.63%
  17. 27Suicide0.54%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.50%
  18. 28Other mental health conditions0.48%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  19. 29Kidney cancer0.47%
    0.40% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  20. 30Stomach cancer0.47%
    0.40% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  21. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.37%
    0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  22. 32Oesophageal cancer0.31%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  23. 33Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.23%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  24. 34Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.21%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  25. 35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.20%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  26. 36Brain cancer0.16%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  27. 37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.14%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  28. 38Road accidents0.09%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  29. 39Breast cancer0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  30. 40Alcohol use disorder0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  31. 41Congenital conditions0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 42Drowning0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 43Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  34. 44Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 3114, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in France, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for France (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in France

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the Assurance maladie screening programmes and the 2025 French vaccine calendar. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 85–89 in France?
Heart failure & other heart disease: 13% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old man in France, followed by dementia & Alzheimer's and heart attack & coronary heart disease.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old man in France dies in the next year?
9.7% (1 in 10). Over the next 10 years it is 86% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old man in France expect to live?
On average, to about 93 — around 6 more years, based on France's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old man in France?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); RSV vaccine; Blood sugar test (diabetes); Shingles vaccine. Based on the Assurance maladie screening programmes and the 2025 French vaccine calendar.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for France (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.