Odainn

What are men aged 85–89 in Türkiye most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old man in Türkiye, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart attack & coronary heart disease, pneumonia & flu and heart failure & other heart disease — together 43% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 14% (1 in 7); over 10 years it is 91%.

Next 12 months
14%
1 in 7
Next 10 years
91%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease19%
    17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 19%
  2. 02Pneumonia & flu13%
    12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  3. 03Heart failure & other heart disease11%
    10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  4. 04Stroke7.8%
    7.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
  5. 05COPD & chronic lung disease7.1%
    6.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  6. 06High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.8%
    6.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  7. 07Dementia & Alzheimer's5.1%
    4.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
  8. 08Kidney disease4.3%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  9. 09Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)4.3%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  10. 10Other causes3.4%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
Show the other 32 causes18% together
  1. 11Diabetes2.4%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  2. 12Prostate cancer1.8%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  3. 13Other lung disease1.8%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  4. 14Other digestive disease1.7%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  5. 15Lung cancer1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  6. 16Falls1.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  7. 17Other cancers0.93%
    0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.92%
  8. 18Other accidents0.89%
    0.80% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  9. 19Colorectal cancer0.87%
    0.79% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  10. 20COVID-190.63%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  11. 21Bladder cancer0.60%
    0.54% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  12. 22Stomach cancer0.56%
    0.50% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  13. 23Leukaemia & lymphoma0.43%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  14. 24Pancreatic cancer0.38%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  15. 25Parkinson's disease0.36%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  16. 26Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.32%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  17. 27Road accidents0.19%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  18. 28Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.18%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  19. 29Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.18%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  20. 30Liver cancer0.18%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  21. 31Brain cancer0.15%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  22. 32Melanoma (skin cancer)0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  23. 33Kidney cancer0.08%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  24. 34Oesophageal cancer0.07%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  25. 35Suicide0.07%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  26. 36Other mental health conditions0.07%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  27. 37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  28. 38Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  29. 39Breast cancer0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  30. 40Congenital conditions<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  31. 41Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  32. 42Drowning<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

About these numbers. Türkiye's figures are for 2023, the year of the February earthquakes. About 50,000 earthquake deaths are counted under “other accidents”, so that cause is far higher than in an ordinary year — above all for young adults.

For people like an 87-year-old man in Türkiye, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Türkiye (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Türkiye

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Türkiye's national cancer screening programmes (Ministry of Health) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 85–89 in Türkiye?
Heart attack & coronary heart disease: 19% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old man in Türkiye, followed by pneumonia & flu and heart failure & other heart disease.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old man in Türkiye dies in the next year?
14% (1 in 7). Over the next 10 years it is 91% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old man in Türkiye expect to live?
On average, to about 92 — around 5 more years, based on Türkiye's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old man in Türkiye?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on Türkiye's national cancer screening programmes (Ministry of Health) and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Türkiye (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.