Odainn

What are men aged 85–89 in Portugal most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old man in Portugal, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart failure & other heart disease, stroke and dementia & Alzheimer's — together 28% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 11% (1 in 9); over 10 years it is 89%.

Next 12 months
11%
1 in 9
Next 10 years
89%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease11%
    9.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  2. 02Stroke8.9%
    7.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.9%
  3. 03Dementia & Alzheimer's8.6%
    7.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.7%
  4. 04Pneumonia & flu8.4%
    7.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.6%
  5. 05Other lung disease6.8%
    6.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.0%
  6. 06High blood pressure & other circulatory disease5.6%
    5.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.8%
  7. 07Other causes5.6%
    4.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  8. 08Heart attack & coronary heart disease4.9%
    4.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  9. 09Prostate cancer4.1%
    3.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  10. 10Other digestive disease3.7%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
Show the other 32 causes33% together
  1. 11COVID-193.4%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  2. 12COPD & chronic lung disease3.4%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  3. 13Other cancers3.0%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  4. 14Diabetes2.9%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  5. 15Kidney disease2.8%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  6. 16Colorectal cancer2.4%
    2.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  7. 17Other accidents2.2%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  8. 18Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.0%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  9. 19Lung cancer1.6%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  10. 20Parkinson's disease1.2%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  11. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.2%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  12. 22Bladder cancer1.0%
    0.93% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  13. 23Falls1.0%
    0.92% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  14. 24Stomach cancer1.0%
    0.90% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.99%
  15. 25Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.64%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  16. 26Pancreatic cancer0.53%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  17. 27Liver cancer0.47%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  18. 28Suicide0.38%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  19. 29Kidney cancer0.32%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  20. 30Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.31%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  21. 31Brain cancer0.23%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  22. 32Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.21%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  23. 33Oesophageal cancer0.20%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  24. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.18%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  25. 35Road accidents0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  26. 36Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  27. 37Other mental health conditions0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  28. 38Breast cancer0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  29. 39Congenital conditions0.04%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  30. 40Drowning0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 41Accidental poisoning & overdose0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  32. 42Alcohol use disorder0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 1411, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like an 87-year-old man in Portugal, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Portugal (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old man in Portugal

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the Portuguese DGS screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 85–89 in Portugal?
Heart failure & other heart disease: 11% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old man in Portugal, followed by stroke and dementia & Alzheimer's.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old man in Portugal dies in the next year?
11% (1 in 9). Over the next 10 years it is 89% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old man in Portugal expect to live?
On average, to about 92 — around 5 more years, based on Portugal's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old man in Portugal?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on the Portuguese DGS screening programmes and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Portugal (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.