Odainn

What are men aged 70–74 in Portugal most likely to die from?

For a 72-year-old man in Portugal, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are stroke, lung cancer and heart attack & coronary heart disease — together 22% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 2.2% (1 in 45); over 10 years it is 31%.

Next 12 months
2.2%
1 in 45
Next 10 years
31%
about 3 in 10
Life expectancy
86
about 14 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Stroke8.0%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.6%
  2. 02Lung cancer7.1%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease6.7%
    2.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  4. 04Heart failure & other heart disease5.5%
    1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.5%
  5. 05Other cancers5.0%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  6. 06Dementia & Alzheimer's4.7%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
  7. 07Other lung disease4.3%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.8%
  8. 08Pneumonia & flu4.2%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.6%
  9. 09Colorectal cancer4.1%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  10. 10Other digestive disease3.9%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
Show the other 33 causes47% together
  1. 11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.8%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  2. 12Prostate cancer3.8%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  3. 13Other causes3.6%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  4. 14COPD & chronic lung disease3.3%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  5. 15Leukaemia & lymphoma2.8%
    0.87% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  6. 16Diabetes2.8%
    0.86% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  7. 17Stomach cancer2.5%
    0.78% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  8. 18COVID-192.4%
    0.74% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  9. 19Liver cancer2.0%
    0.63% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  10. 20Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.9%
    0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  11. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.9%
    0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  12. 22Pancreatic cancer1.9%
    0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 23Other accidents1.5%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  14. 24Kidney disease1.5%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  15. 25Parkinson's disease1.5%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  16. 26Bladder cancer1.4%
    0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  17. 27Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.2%
    0.38% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  18. 28Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.93%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  19. 29Falls0.93%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  20. 30Suicide0.91%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  21. 31Oesophageal cancer0.80%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  22. 32Brain cancer0.69%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  23. 33Road accidents0.58%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  24. 34Kidney cancer0.57%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  25. 35Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.44%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  26. 36Melanoma (skin cancer)0.24%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  27. 37Other mental health conditions0.15%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  28. 38Alcohol use disorder0.09%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  29. 39Breast cancer0.08%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  30. 40Drowning0.07%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  31. 41Congenital conditions0.05%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  32. 42Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 43Homicide0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 1411, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 72-year-old man in Portugal, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Portugal (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 72-year-old man in Portugal

If you smoke or used to:

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on the Portuguese DGS screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 70–74 in Portugal?
Stroke: 8.0% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 72-year-old man in Portugal, followed by lung cancer and heart attack & coronary heart disease.
What is the chance that a 72-year-old man in Portugal dies in the next year?
2.2% (1 in 45). Over the next 10 years it is 31% (about 3 in 10).
How long can a 72-year-old man in Portugal expect to live?
On average, to about 86 — around 14 more years, based on Portugal's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 72-year-old man in Portugal?
Blood pressure check; Bowel cancer screening (stool test); Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on the Portuguese DGS screening programmes and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Portugal (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.