Odainn

What are women aged 85–89 in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

For an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart failure & other heart disease, stroke and high blood pressure & other circulatory disease — together 71% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 13% (1 in 8); over 10 years it is 91%.

Next 12 months
13%
1 in 8
Next 10 years
91%
about 9 in 10
Life expectancy
92
about 5 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease28%
    26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 29%
  2. 02Stroke27%
    25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 27%
  3. 03High blood pressure & other circulatory disease16%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
  4. 04Heart attack & coronary heart disease15%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  5. 05Other digestive disease1.6%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  6. 06Pneumonia & flu1.5%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 07Kidney disease1.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  8. 08Other lung disease1.1%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  9. 09COVID-190.94%
    0.86% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  10. 10Colorectal cancer0.93%
    0.85% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
Show the other 31 causes6.7% together
  1. 11Diabetes0.92%
    0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.87%
  2. 12COPD & chronic lung disease0.77%
    0.70% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.79%
  3. 13Breast cancer0.76%
    0.69% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  4. 14Other cancers0.65%
    0.59% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  5. 15Uterine & ovarian cancer0.40%
    0.36% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  6. 16Falls0.33%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  7. 17Stomach cancer0.31%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  8. 18Pancreatic cancer0.28%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
  9. 19Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.27%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  10. 20Lung cancer0.25%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  11. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.19%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  12. 22Liver cancer0.17%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  13. 23Parkinson's disease0.17%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  14. 24Other causes0.15%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  15. 25Bladder cancer0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  16. 26Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.14%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  17. 27Melanoma (skin cancer)0.11%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  18. 28Leukaemia & lymphoma0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  19. 29Dementia & Alzheimer's0.10%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  20. 30Other accidents0.09%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  21. 31Cervical cancer0.08%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  22. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  23. 33Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  24. 34Suicide0.06%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  25. 35Brain cancer0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  26. 36Kidney cancer0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  27. 37Road accidents0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  28. 38Accidental poisoning & overdose0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  29. 39Oesophageal cancer0.02%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  30. 40Drowning<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  31. 41Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 85–89 in Bulgaria?
Heart failure & other heart disease: 28% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria, followed by stroke and high blood pressure & other circulatory disease.
What is the chance that an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria dies in the next year?
13% (1 in 8). Over the next 10 years it is 91% (about 9 in 10).
How long can an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria expect to live?
On average, to about 92 — around 5 more years, based on Bulgaria's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for an 87-year-old woman in Bulgaria?
Blood pressure check; Breast cancer screening (mammogram); Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Bulgaria (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.