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What are women aged 15–19 in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in Bulgaria, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are road accidents, heart failure & other heart disease and suicide — together 32% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.02% (1 in 4,791); over 10 years it is 0.32%.

Next 12 months
0.02%
1 in 4,791
Next 10 years
0.32%
1 in 310
Life expectancy
80
about 63 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents15%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease9.1%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 24%
  3. 03Suicide8.0%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  4. 04Leukaemia & lymphoma7.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.68%
  5. 05Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)6.4%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.61%
  6. 06Pneumonia & flu6.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  7. 07High blood pressure & other circulatory disease5.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  8. 08Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)4.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  9. 09Stroke4.7%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 22%
  10. 10Other causes3.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
Show the other 17 causes30% together
  1. 11Other digestive disease3.6%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  2. 12Pregnancy & childbirth3.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  3. 13Homicide3.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  4. 14Colorectal cancer2.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  5. 15Other lung disease2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  6. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  7. 17Cervical cancer1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.64%
  8. 18Diabetes1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  9. 19Congenital conditions1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  10. 20Other cancers1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  11. 21Brain cancer1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  12. 22COVID-191.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  13. 23Other accidents1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  14. 24Heart attack & coronary heart disease1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  15. 25Liver cancer0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.50%
  16. 26Uterine & ovarian cancer0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  17. 27Drowning0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like a 17-year-old girl in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in Bulgaria?
Road accidents: 15% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in Bulgaria, followed by heart failure & other heart disease and suicide.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in Bulgaria dies in the next year?
0.02% (1 in 4,791). Over the next 10 years it is 0.32% (1 in 310).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in Bulgaria expect to live?
On average, to about 80 — around 63 more years, based on Bulgaria's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Bulgaria (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.