Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in the Netherlands most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in the Netherlands, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, other mental health conditions and road accidents — together 45% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.01% (1 in 7,906); over 10 years it is 0.19%.

Next 12 months
0.01%
1 in 7,906
Next 10 years
0.19%
1 in 516
Life expectancy
84
about 67 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide26%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  2. 02Other mental health conditions10%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
  3. 03Road accidents8.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)6.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  5. 05Congenital conditions4.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  6. 06Other cancers4.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
  7. 07Brain cancer3.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  8. 08High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  9. 09Leukaemia & lymphoma3.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  10. 10Pneumonia & flu3.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
Show the other 23 causes27% together
  1. 11Other causes3.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  2. 12Accidental poisoning & overdose3.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  3. 13Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  4. 14Heart failure & other heart disease1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  5. 15Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  6. 16Other digestive disease1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  7. 17Stroke1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  8. 18Breast cancer1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  9. 19Falls1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.4%
  10. 20Diabetes1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  11. 21Homicide1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  12. 22Other lung disease0.98%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 23Colorectal cancer0.89%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  14. 24Lung cancer0.69%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.6%
  15. 25Uterine & ovarian cancer0.53%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  16. 26COPD & chronic lung disease0.53%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  17. 27Melanoma (skin cancer)0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
  18. 28Kidney disease0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  19. 29COVID-190.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  20. 30Other accidents0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  21. 31Drowning0.39%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  22. 32Cervical cancer0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  23. 33Kidney cancer0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 113, 113 Zelfmoordpreventie — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in the Netherlands, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the Netherlands (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in the Netherlands?
Suicide: 26% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in the Netherlands, followed by other mental health conditions and road accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in the Netherlands dies in the next year?
0.01% (1 in 7,906). Over the next 10 years it is 0.19% (1 in 516).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in the Netherlands expect to live?
On average, to about 84 — around 67 more years, based on the Netherlands' current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for the Netherlands (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.