Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in France most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in France, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, road accidents and other accidents — together 41% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.01% (1 in 6,973); over 10 years it is 0.20%.

Next 12 months
0.01%
1 in 6,973
Next 10 years
0.20%
1 in 491
Life expectancy
86
about 69 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide23%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  2. 02Road accidents11%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  3. 03Other accidents7.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)6.0%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  5. 05Other cancers5.9%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
  6. 06Other causes4.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.9%
  7. 07Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)4.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
  8. 08Congenital conditions3.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  9. 09Leukaemia & lymphoma2.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  10. 10Brain cancer2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
Show the other 33 causes29% together
  1. 11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
  2. 12Heart failure & other heart disease2.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  3. 13Stroke2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  4. 14Homicide1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  5. 15Falls1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  6. 16Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 17Other mental health conditions1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
  8. 18Other digestive disease1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  9. 19Other lung disease1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  10. 20Pneumonia & flu1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  11. 21Breast cancer1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  12. 22Pregnancy & childbirth1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  13. 23Uterine & ovarian cancer1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  14. 24Accidental poisoning & overdose1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  15. 25Diabetes0.91%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  16. 26Colorectal cancer0.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  17. 27COPD & chronic lung disease0.61%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  18. 28Drug use disorder0.55%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  19. 29Drowning0.48%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  20. 30Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.35%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  21. 31Alcohol use disorder0.35%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  22. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  23. 33Stomach cancer0.32%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
  24. 34Kidney cancer0.28%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  25. 35Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.26%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  26. 36Kidney disease0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  27. 37Lung cancer0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  28. 38Cervical cancer0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  29. 39Liver cancer0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
  30. 40COVID-190.21%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  31. 41Melanoma (skin cancer)0.20%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.24%
  32. 42Pancreatic cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  33. 43Oesophageal cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 3114, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in France, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for France (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in France?
Suicide: 23% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in France, followed by road accidents and other accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in France dies in the next year?
0.01% (1 in 6,973). Over the next 10 years it is 0.20% (1 in 491).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in France expect to live?
On average, to about 86 — around 69 more years, based on France's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for France (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.