Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in Canada most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in Canada, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are accidental poisoning & overdose, suicide and road accidents — together 60% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.03% (1 in 3,861); over 10 years it is 0.39%.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 3,861
Next 10 years
0.39%
1 in 259
Life expectancy
85
about 68 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Accidental poisoning & overdose30%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  2. 02Suicide20%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  3. 03Road accidents10%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)4.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  5. 05Other cancers3.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  6. 06Other causes2.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  7. 07Congenital conditions2.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  8. 08Leukaemia & lymphoma2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  9. 09Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  10. 10Heart failure & other heart disease1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.3%
Show the other 31 causes22% together
  1. 11Homicide1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  2. 12Brain cancer1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  3. 13Other accidents1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
  4. 14High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  5. 15Other digestive disease1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  6. 16Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.81%
  7. 17Uterine & ovarian cancer1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  8. 18Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  9. 19Diabetes1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  10. 20Pneumonia & flu0.99%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  11. 21Other lung disease0.94%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  12. 22Pregnancy & childbirth0.90%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  13. 23Drowning0.76%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  14. 24Other mental health conditions0.72%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  15. 25Stroke0.71%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  16. 26Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.3%
  17. 27Alcohol use disorder0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  18. 28Breast cancer0.55%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  19. 29Falls0.53%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  20. 30COVID-190.44%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  21. 31Colorectal cancer0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  22. 32Drug use disorder0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  23. 33COPD & chronic lung disease0.32%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  24. 34Kidney disease0.30%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  25. 35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.23%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  26. 36Pancreatic cancer0.21%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  27. 37Liver cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  28. 38Kidney cancer0.16%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  29. 39Lung cancer0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  30. 40Stomach cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  31. 41Cervical cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide Crisis Helpline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in Canada, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Canada (2023–2024), Statistics Canada. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in Canada?
Accidental poisoning & overdose: 30% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in Canada, followed by suicide and road accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in Canada dies in the next year?
0.03% (1 in 3,861). Over the next 10 years it is 0.39% (1 in 259).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in Canada expect to live?
On average, to about 85 — around 68 more years, based on Canada's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Statistics Canada mortality statistics for Canada (2023–2024) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.