Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in Spain most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in Spain, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, road accidents and other cancers — together 43% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.01% (1 in 7,924); over 10 years it is 0.15%.

Next 12 months
0.01%
1 in 7,924
Next 10 years
0.15%
1 in 690
Life expectancy
87
about 70 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide18%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  2. 02Road accidents15%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  3. 03Other cancers9.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)8.2%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  5. 05Other lung disease3.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  6. 06Leukaemia & lymphoma3.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 07Other causes3.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.1%
  8. 08Other accidents2.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  9. 09Congenital conditions2.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  10. 10Brain cancer2.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
Show the other 31 causes30% together
  1. 11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.8%
  2. 12Accidental poisoning & overdose2.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  3. 13Heart failure & other heart disease2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  4. 14Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  5. 15Falls1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  6. 16Colorectal cancer1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  7. 17Homicide1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  8. 18Stroke1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.3%
  9. 19Other digestive disease1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  10. 20Uterine & ovarian cancer1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  11. 21COPD & chronic lung disease1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  12. 22COVID-190.91%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  13. 23Stomach cancer0.91%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
  14. 24Diabetes0.85%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  15. 25Pneumonia & flu0.84%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  16. 26Drowning0.69%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  17. 27Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.68%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  18. 28Breast cancer0.56%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  19. 29Melanoma (skin cancer)0.51%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  20. 30Complications around birth0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  21. 31Other mental health conditions0.45%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  22. 32Liver cancer0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  23. 33Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  24. 34Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  25. 35Lung cancer0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  26. 36Cervical cancer0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
  27. 37Bladder cancer0.29%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
  28. 38Pregnancy & childbirth0.28%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  29. 39Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  30. 40Kidney cancer0.17%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  31. 41Pancreatic cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 024, the suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in Spain, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Spain (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

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Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in Spain?
Suicide: 18% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in Spain, followed by road accidents and other cancers.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in Spain dies in the next year?
0.01% (1 in 7,924). Over the next 10 years it is 0.15% (1 in 690).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in Spain expect to live?
On average, to about 87 — around 70 more years, based on Spain's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Spain (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.