Odainn

What are women aged 15–19 in Italy most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old girl in Italy, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are road accidents, suicide and other cancers — together 44% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.01% (1 in 7,337); over 10 years it is 0.16%.

Next 12 months
0.01%
1 in 7,337
Next 10 years
0.16%
1 in 641
Life expectancy
85
about 68 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents20%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  2. 02Suicide14%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  3. 03Other cancers9.6%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)8.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  5. 05Leukaemia & lymphoma5.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  6. 06Congenital conditions4.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  7. 07Other causes4.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  8. 08Stroke2.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.2%
  9. 09Heart failure & other heart disease2.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.5%
  10. 10High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
Show the other 30 causes26% together
  1. 11Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  2. 12Other accidents2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  3. 13Brain cancer2.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  4. 14Homicide1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  5. 15Other lung disease1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  6. 16Complications around birth1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  7. 17Other digestive disease1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  8. 18Uterine & ovarian cancer1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  9. 19Breast cancer1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  10. 20Melanoma (skin cancer)1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  11. 21Pneumonia & flu0.96%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  12. 22Drowning0.95%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  13. 23Falls0.91%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.77%
  14. 24Accidental poisoning & overdose0.86%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  15. 25Other mental health conditions0.67%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  16. 26Lung cancer0.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  17. 27Liver cancer0.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  18. 28COVID-190.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  19. 29Colorectal cancer0.59%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  20. 30Pregnancy & childbirth0.59%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  21. 31Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  22. 32Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.48%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  23. 33Stomach cancer0.42%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.92%
  24. 34Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.5%
  25. 35Kidney cancer0.36%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
  26. 36Pancreatic cancer0.21%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  27. 37Cervical cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  28. 38Bladder cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  29. 39Diabetes0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  30. 40Drug use disorder0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Telefono Amico on 02 2327 2327 (normal call rate) — confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old girl in Italy, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Italy (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for women aged 15–19 in Italy?
Road accidents: 20% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old girl in Italy, followed by suicide and other cancers.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old girl in Italy dies in the next year?
0.01% (1 in 7,337). Over the next 10 years it is 0.16% (1 in 641).
How long can a 17-year-old girl in Italy expect to live?
On average, to about 85 — around 68 more years, based on Italy's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Italy (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.