Odainn

What are men aged 75–79 in Germany most likely to die from?

For a 77-year-old man in Germany, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are heart attack & coronary heart disease, heart failure & other heart disease and dementia & Alzheimer's — together 29% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 4.3% (1 in 23); over 10 years it is 54%.

Next 12 months
4.3%
1 in 23
Next 10 years
54%
about 5 in 10
Life expectancy
87
about 10 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease14%
    7.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease9.0%
    4.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  3. 03Dementia & Alzheimer's6.2%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.5%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.1%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
  5. 05Stroke5.5%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.3%
  6. 06Lung cancer4.3%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  7. 07Other cancers4.3%
    2.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  8. 08COPD & chronic lung disease4.0%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  9. 09Prostate cancer3.8%
    2.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  10. 10COVID-193.6%
    1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
Show the other 35 causes39% together
  1. 11Other causes3.3%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  2. 12Other digestive disease2.8%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  3. 13Diabetes2.7%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  4. 14Pneumonia & flu2.6%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  5. 15Leukaemia & lymphoma2.6%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  6. 16Parkinson's disease2.4%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  7. 17Colorectal cancer2.4%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  8. 18Falls2.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  9. 19Kidney disease2.1%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  10. 20Other lung disease1.9%
    1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  11. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.9%
    0.99% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  12. 22Pancreatic cancer1.8%
    0.98% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  13. 23Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.3%
    0.72% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  14. 24Liver cancer1.1%
    0.56% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  15. 25Bladder cancer0.94%
    0.51% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  16. 26Other accidents0.85%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.95%
  17. 27Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.85%
    0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  18. 28Stomach cancer0.82%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.66%
  19. 29Suicide0.73%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
  20. 30Oesophageal cancer0.64%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  21. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.61%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
  22. 32Kidney cancer0.59%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  23. 33Brain cancer0.39%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  24. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.35%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  25. 35Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.26%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  26. 36Alcohol use disorder0.26%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  27. 37Road accidents0.22%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  28. 38Other mental health conditions0.19%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  29. 39Congenital conditions0.05%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  30. 40Drowning0.04%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 41Breast cancer0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  32. 42Accidental poisoning & overdose0.03%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 43Homicide<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  34. 44Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  35. 45Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 77-year-old man in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 77-year-old man in Germany

Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 75–79 in Germany?
Heart attack & coronary heart disease: 14% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 77-year-old man in Germany, followed by heart failure & other heart disease and dementia & Alzheimer's.
What is the chance that a 77-year-old man in Germany dies in the next year?
4.3% (1 in 23). Over the next 10 years it is 54% (about 5 in 10).
How long can a 77-year-old man in Germany expect to live?
On average, to about 87 — around 10 more years, based on Germany's current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 77-year-old man in Germany?
Blood pressure check; Bowel cancer screening (stool test); Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Aortic aneurysm scan (ultrasound); Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Skin cancer check; RSV vaccine; Blood sugar test (diabetes); Shingles vaccine. Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Germany (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.