Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in Sweden most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Sweden, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, homicide and accidental poisoning & overdose — together 57% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.03% (1 in 3,368); over 10 years it is 0.48%.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 3,368
Next 10 years
0.48%
1 in 209
Life expectancy
82
about 65 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide33%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  2. 02Homicide12%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  3. 03Accidental poisoning & overdose12%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  4. 04Road accidents8.6%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  5. 05Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)7.2%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  6. 06Other cancers3.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
  7. 07Other accidents3.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  8. 08Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  9. 09Congenital conditions2.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  10. 10Heart failure & other heart disease1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
Show the other 23 causes13% together
  1. 11Brain cancer1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.74%
  2. 12Diabetes1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  3. 13Stroke0.98%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  4. 14Leukaemia & lymphoma0.98%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  5. 15Drowning0.93%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  6. 16Other digestive disease0.89%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  7. 17Drug use disorder0.72%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  8. 18Other causes0.70%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  9. 19Kidney disease0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  10. 20Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
  11. 21Lung cancer0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  12. 22Kidney cancer0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  13. 23Pneumonia & flu0.42%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  14. 24Other lung disease0.42%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  15. 25Liver cancer0.36%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
  16. 26Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.35%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  17. 27Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  18. 28Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  19. 29Colorectal cancer0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  20. 30Stomach cancer0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  21. 31Melanoma (skin cancer)0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
  22. 32Other mental health conditions0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  23. 33Complications around birth0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Självmordslinjen on 90101 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Sweden, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Sweden (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Sweden?
Suicide: 33% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Sweden, followed by homicide and accidental poisoning & overdose.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Sweden dies in the next year?
0.03% (1 in 3,368). Over the next 10 years it is 0.48% (1 in 209).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Sweden expect to live?
On average, to about 82 — around 65 more years, based on Sweden's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Sweden (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.