Odainn

What are men aged 15–19 in Estonia most likely to die from?

For a 17-year-old boy in Estonia, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are suicide, accidental poisoning & overdose and road accidents — together 57% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 0.05% (1 in 2,022); over 10 years it is 0.66%.

Next 12 months
0.05%
1 in 2,022
Next 10 years
0.66%
1 in 152
Life expectancy
75
about 58 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide30%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  2. 02Accidental poisoning & overdose16%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  3. 03Road accidents11%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  4. 04Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)6.1%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
  5. 05Falls5.8%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  6. 06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)5.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 07Drowning4.3%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  8. 08Other accidents3.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  9. 09Heart failure & other heart disease2.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  10. 10Pneumonia & flu2.0%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
Show the other 14 causes13% together
  1. 11Other cancers1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  2. 12Homicide1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  3. 13Diabetes1.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  4. 14Leukaemia & lymphoma1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  5. 15Congenital conditions1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  6. 16Other causes1.2%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  7. 17Heart attack & coronary heart disease1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 17%
  8. 18Stroke1.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  9. 19Other lung disease0.71%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.55%
  10. 20Other digestive disease0.51%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  11. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.51%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  12. 22Brain cancer0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  13. 23Melanoma (skin cancer)0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  14. 24Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call the emotional support line on 116 123 (10:00–24:00) — free and confidential; at other times, call 112 (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Estonia, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Estonia (2018, 2019 and 2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 15–19 in Estonia?
Suicide: 30% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 17-year-old boy in Estonia, followed by accidental poisoning & overdose and road accidents.
What is the chance that a 17-year-old boy in Estonia dies in the next year?
0.05% (1 in 2,022). Over the next 10 years it is 0.66% (1 in 152).
How long can a 17-year-old boy in Estonia expect to live?
On average, to about 75 — around 58 more years, based on Estonia's current death rates.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for Estonia (2018, 2019 and 2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.