Odainn

What are men aged 90–94 in the Netherlands most likely to die from?

For a 92-year-old man in the Netherlands, the most likely causes of death over the next 10 years are dementia & Alzheimer's, heart failure & other heart disease and pneumonia & flu — together 38% of the risk. The chance of dying in the next 12 months is 22% (about 2 in 10); over 10 years it is 97%.

Next 12 months
22%
about 2 in 10
Next 10 years
97%
more than 9 in 10
Life expectancy
95
about 3 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Dementia & Alzheimer's16%
    15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease15%
    15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  3. 03Pneumonia & flu6.7%
    6.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.7%
  4. 04Heart attack & coronary heart disease6.4%
    6.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%
  5. 05Stroke5.7%
    5.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.7%
  6. 06Falls5.7%
    5.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.8%
  7. 07Other causes4.9%
    4.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  8. 08Other cancers4.0%
    3.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  9. 09COVID-193.5%
    3.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  10. 10Prostate cancer3.4%
    3.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
Show the other 32 causes29% together
  1. 11COPD & chronic lung disease3.2%
    3.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  2. 12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.1%
    3.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  3. 13Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)3.0%
    2.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  4. 14Other digestive disease2.9%
    2.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  5. 15Kidney disease2.1%
    2.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  6. 16Diabetes1.8%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  7. 17Other lung disease1.5%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  8. 18Other accidents1.4%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  9. 19Colorectal cancer1.4%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  10. 20Lung cancer1.3%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  11. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.3%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  12. 22Parkinson's disease1.2%
    1.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  13. 23Bladder cancer0.82%
    0.80% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.81%
  14. 24Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.79%
    0.77% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.79%
  15. 25Pancreatic cancer0.40%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  16. 26Stomach cancer0.32%
    0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  17. 27Other mental health conditions0.30%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
  18. 28Oesophageal cancer0.30%
    0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  19. 29Melanoma (skin cancer)0.28%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  20. 30Kidney cancer0.23%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  21. 31Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.23%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  22. 32Liver cancer0.22%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.22%
  23. 33Road accidents0.17%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  24. 34Suicide0.06%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  25. 35Brain cancer0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  26. 36Breast cancer0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  27. 37Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  28. 38Alcohol use disorder0.04%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  29. 39Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  30. 40Accidental poisoning & overdose0.03%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  31. 41Drowning0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  32. 42Congenital conditions<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 113, 113 Zelfmoordpreventie — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 92-year-old man in the Netherlands, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the Netherlands (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 92-year-old man in the Netherlands

If you smoke or used to:

Based on the RIVM population screening programmes and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Compared with

Same age in other countries

Questions

What is the most common cause of death for men aged 90–94 in the Netherlands?
Dementia & Alzheimer's: 16% of the risk of dying over the next 10 years for a 92-year-old man in the Netherlands, followed by heart failure & other heart disease and pneumonia & flu.
What is the chance that a 92-year-old man in the Netherlands dies in the next year?
22% (about 2 in 10). Over the next 10 years it is 97% (more than 9 in 10).
How long can a 92-year-old man in the Netherlands expect to live?
On average, to about 95 — around 3 more years, based on the Netherlands' current death rates.
Which check-ups are recommended for a 92-year-old man in the Netherlands?
Blood pressure check; Flu vaccine; Cholesterol & heart-risk check; Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal); Blood sugar test (diabetes). Based on the RIVM population screening programmes and European guidelines.
Can these risks be lowered?
Many of them, yes. Smoking, alcohol, activity and weight change these numbers a lot, and screening finds several cancers early. Odainn's personal numbers adjust the statistics for your own habits and rank the changes that give you the most years back. This is educational information, not medical advice.

Computed by Odainn from official Eurostat mortality statistics for the Netherlands (2023) — how we calculate. Educational, not medical advice.