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Free risk check · real data

What is a 17-year-old boy in Portugal most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.04%
1 in 2,610
Next 10 years
0.49%
1 in 206
Life expectancy
80
about 63 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents31%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.97%
  2. 02Suicide16%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  3. 03Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)6.3%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  4. 04Leukaemia & lymphoma6.0%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  5. 05Other cancers4.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  6. 06Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)4.2%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.52%
  7. 07Homicide2.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  8. 08Congenital conditions2.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
Show the other 22 causes26% together
  1. 09Brain cancer2.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.69%
  2. 10Other accidents2.2%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  3. 11Heart attack & coronary heart disease2.2%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  4. 12Heart failure & other heart disease2.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
  5. 13Other lung disease2.0%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
  6. 14Drowning1.9%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  7. 15High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  8. 16Other causes1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  9. 17Accidental poisoning & overdose1.6%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  10. 18COVID-191.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  11. 19Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  12. 20Other digestive disease0.90%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
  13. 21Pneumonia & flu0.77%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  14. 22Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  15. 23Stroke0.73%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
  16. 24COPD & chronic lung disease0.66%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  17. 25Falls0.59%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  18. 26Liver cancer0.52%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  19. 27Complications around birth0.38%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  20. 28Colorectal cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  21. 29Pancreatic cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  22. 30Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 1411, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Portugal, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Portugal (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 15–19 in Portugal

How long people like this live: life expectancy.