Odainn
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What is a 72-year-old man in Belarus most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
72
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
5.7%
1 in 18
Next 10 years
57%
about 6 in 10
Life expectancy
82
about 10 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease33%
    19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 36%
  2. 02Stroke19%
    11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 20%
  3. 03High blood pressure & other circulatory disease8.5%
    4.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.7%
  4. 04Heart failure & other heart disease4.5%
    2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  5. 05Lung cancer4.4%
    2.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  6. 06Prostate cancer3.2%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  7. 07Dementia & Alzheimer's2.9%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
  8. 08Colorectal cancer2.2%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
Show the other 33 causes22% together
  1. 09Other cancers2.0%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  2. 10Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.7%
    0.98% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  3. 11Other digestive disease1.5%
    0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  4. 12Stomach cancer1.4%
    0.81% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  5. 13COPD & chronic lung disease1.4%
    0.77% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  6. 14Leukaemia & lymphoma1.3%
    0.74% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  7. 15Parkinson's disease1.3%
    0.71% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  8. 16Bladder cancer1.2%
    0.69% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  9. 17Pancreatic cancer1.1%
    0.61% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.85%
  10. 18Pneumonia & flu1.0%
    0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  11. 19Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.91%
    0.51% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
  12. 20Falls0.80%
    0.45% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.85%
  13. 21Suicide0.79%
    0.45% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  14. 22Kidney disease0.75%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  15. 23Kidney cancer0.69%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  16. 24Other accidents0.65%
    0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.50%
  17. 25Liver cancer0.57%
    0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  18. 26Oesophageal cancer0.43%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  19. 27Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.42%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  20. 28Alcohol use disorder0.36%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  21. 29Brain cancer0.31%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  22. 30Other causes0.31%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
  23. 31Accidental poisoning & overdose0.24%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  24. 32Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.21%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  25. 33Other lung disease0.20%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  26. 34Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.20%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  27. 35Diabetes0.16%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  28. 36Road accidents0.15%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
  29. 37Drowning0.15%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  30. 38Homicide0.06%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  31. 39Other mental health conditions0.06%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  32. 40Congenital conditions0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  33. 41Breast cancer0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 133, the national psychological emergency line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

Causes estimated. Belarus publishes deaths by age and deaths by cause, but not the two together, so the split by cause is Odainn's estimate: Belstat's official 2018 totals, spread by the age and cause patterns of Lithuania and Latvia. Life expectancy and the odds of dying are official. How

For people like a 72-year-old man in Belarus, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Belarus (2018), Belstat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 70–74 in Belarus

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 72-year-old man in Belarus

If you smoke or used to:

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on the Belarus Ministry of Health dispensary check (2024) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

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Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.