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Free risk check · real data

What is a 92-year-old man in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
92
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
24%
about 2 in 10
Next 10 years
98%
more than 9 in 10
Life expectancy
95
about 3 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart failure & other heart disease29%
    29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 29%
  2. 02Stroke24%
    24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 24%
  3. 03Heart attack & coronary heart disease14%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease14%
    14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
  5. 05Pneumonia & flu2.3%
    2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
  6. 06Prostate cancer1.8%
    1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  7. 07COVID-191.6%
    1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  8. 08Kidney disease1.4%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
Show the other 30 causes11% together
  1. 09Other lung disease1.4%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  2. 10Other digestive disease1.4%
    1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  3. 11COPD & chronic lung disease1.2%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  4. 12Colorectal cancer1.1%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  5. 13Diabetes0.84%
    0.82% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.85%
  6. 14Other cancers0.83%
    0.81% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  7. 15Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.56%
    0.55% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  8. 16Stomach cancer0.40%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  9. 17Bladder cancer0.40%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
  10. 18Lung cancer0.38%
    0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  11. 19Pancreatic cancer0.26%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
  12. 20Falls0.23%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
  13. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma0.21%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  14. 22Parkinson's disease0.20%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  15. 23Other causes0.20%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
  16. 24Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.16%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  17. 25Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.16%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  18. 26Other accidents0.15%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  19. 27Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.12%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  20. 28Melanoma (skin cancer)0.09%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  21. 29Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.09%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  22. 30Brain cancer0.08%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  23. 31Liver cancer0.07%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  24. 32Road accidents0.07%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  25. 33Suicide0.07%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
  26. 34Breast cancer0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  27. 35Dementia & Alzheimer's0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  28. 36Drowning0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  29. 37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.05%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  30. 38Kidney cancer0.02%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like a 92-year-old man in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Full page with comparisons: men aged 90–94 in Bulgaria

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 92-year-old man in Bulgaria

If you smoke or used to:

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.