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Free risk check · real data

What is a 17-year-old boy in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.05%
1 in 1,892
Next 10 years
0.80%
1 in 125
Life expectancy
73
about 56 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents25%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  2. 02Heart failure & other heart disease10%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 20%
  3. 03Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)9.0%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  4. 04Suicide7.7%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
  5. 05Pneumonia & flu4.7%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  6. 06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)4.5%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  7. 07Drowning4.0%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  8. 08Other accidents2.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
Show the other 22 causes31% together
  1. 09Other lung disease2.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  2. 10Stroke2.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
  3. 11High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  4. 12Other cancers2.7%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  5. 13Other digestive disease2.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  6. 14Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  7. 15Heart attack & coronary heart disease2.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  8. 16Homicide1.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  9. 17Falls1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
  10. 18Accidental poisoning & overdose1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  11. 19Congenital conditions1.7%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  12. 20Kidney disease1.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  13. 21Leukaemia & lymphoma1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  14. 22COVID-190.91%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  15. 23Other causes0.63%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  16. 24Stomach cancer0.49%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  17. 25Brain cancer0.47%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  18. 26Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.47%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  19. 27Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.25%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  20. 28Liver cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.75%
  21. 29Melanoma (skin cancer)0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  22. 30Diabetes0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Full page with comparisons: men aged 15–19 in Bulgaria

How long people like this live: life expectancy.