Odainn
Free risk check · real data

What is a 17-year-old boy in Italy most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.03%
1 in 3,935
Next 10 years
0.37%
1 in 272
Life expectancy
81
about 64 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's road accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Road accidents32%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
  2. 02Suicide18%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  3. 03Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)5.8%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  4. 04Other cancers4.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  5. 05Other accidents4.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  6. 06Heart failure & other heart disease3.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.6%
  7. 07Leukaemia & lymphoma3.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  8. 08Congenital conditions3.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
Show the other 31 causes25% together
  1. 09Falls2.7%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
  2. 10Other causes2.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  3. 11Drowning2.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  4. 12Brain cancer2.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
  5. 13High blood pressure & other circulatory disease1.8%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.1%
  6. 14Homicide1.5%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  7. 15Stroke1.4%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.1%
  8. 16Accidental poisoning & overdose1.3%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  9. 17Pneumonia & flu0.98%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  10. 18Other lung disease0.94%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  11. 19Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.94%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  12. 20Other digestive disease0.92%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  13. 21Liver cancer0.76%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  14. 22Drug use disorder0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  15. 23Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.51%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.7%
  16. 24Melanoma (skin cancer)0.43%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  17. 25Colorectal cancer0.43%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  18. 26Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  19. 27Stomach cancer0.37%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  20. 28COVID-190.35%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  21. 29Complications around birth0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  22. 30Other mental health conditions0.27%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.27%
  23. 31COPD & chronic lung disease0.24%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  24. 32Lung cancer0.18%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.2%
  25. 33Pancreatic cancer0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  26. 34Diabetes0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  27. 35Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  28. 36Prostate cancer0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  29. 37Parkinson's disease0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  30. 38Kidney disease0.10%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  31. 39Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Telefono Amico on 02 2327 2327 (normal call rate) — confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Italy, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Italy (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 15–19 in Italy

How long people like this live: life expectancy.