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What is a 17-year-old girl in Türkiye most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.08%
1 in 1,196
Next 10 years
0.81%
1 in 124
Life expectancy
81
about 64 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's other accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Other accidents70%
    0.57% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  2. 02Suicide5.6%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  3. 03Road accidents3.5%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.4%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  5. 05Pneumonia & flu1.8%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.8%
  6. 06Other causes1.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  7. 07Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  8. 08Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
Show the other 34 causes11% together
  1. 09Other cancers1.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  2. 10Heart failure & other heart disease1.1%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  3. 11Brain cancer0.72%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.43%
  4. 12Heart attack & coronary heart disease0.70%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 17%
  5. 13Stroke0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.7%
  6. 14High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.62%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.6%
  7. 15Kidney disease0.60%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  8. 16Other digestive disease0.59%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  9. 17Other lung disease0.53%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  10. 18Congenital conditions0.50%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  11. 19Pregnancy & childbirth0.50%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  12. 20Homicide0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  13. 21Accidental poisoning & overdose0.41%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  14. 22Drowning0.33%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  15. 23Falls0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  16. 24Breast cancer0.22%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  17. 25Colorectal cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
  18. 26Stomach cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
  19. 27Uterine & ovarian cancer0.19%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  20. 28Diabetes0.17%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  21. 29COPD & chronic lung disease0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  22. 30Melanoma (skin cancer)0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  23. 31Kidney cancer0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
  24. 32Cervical cancer0.08%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
  25. 33Liver cancer0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
  26. 34Lung cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  27. 35Other mental health conditions0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  28. 36Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  29. 37Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  30. 38COVID-190.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
  31. 39Pancreatic cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  32. 40Complications around birth0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  33. 41Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  34. 42Bladder cancer<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

About these numbers. Türkiye's figures are for 2023, the year of the February earthquakes. About 50,000 earthquake deaths are counted under “other accidents”, so that cause is far higher than in an ordinary year — above all for young adults.

For people like a 17-year-old girl in Türkiye, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Türkiye (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: women aged 15–19 in Türkiye

How long people like this live: life expectancy.