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What is a 17-year-old boy in Türkiye most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
17
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.11%
1 in 871
Next 10 years
1.2%
1 in 84
Life expectancy
76
about 59 more years on average
The surpriseAt 17, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's other accidents.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Other accidents51%
    0.61% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  2. 02Road accidents13%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.99%
  3. 03Suicide11%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.61%
  4. 04Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)4.4%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.63%
  5. 05Homicide2.4%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
  6. 06Pneumonia & flu2.2%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.8%
  7. 07Leukaemia & lymphoma2.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  8. 08Other cancers1.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
Show the other 32 causes13% together
  1. 09Heart failure & other heart disease1.6%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.0%
  2. 10Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.5%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
  3. 11Drowning1.3%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  4. 12Heart attack & coronary heart disease1.2%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 18%
  5. 13Accidental poisoning & overdose1.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  6. 14Other causes1.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  7. 15Stroke0.69%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
  8. 16Falls0.60%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.85%
  9. 17Brain cancer0.60%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.55%
  10. 18High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.57%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  11. 19Other digestive disease0.52%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  12. 20Kidney disease0.46%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  13. 21Other lung disease0.40%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  14. 22Congenital conditions0.30%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  15. 23Lung cancer0.18%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  16. 24Liver cancer0.14%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
  17. 25Colorectal cancer0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  18. 26Diabetes0.12%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  19. 27Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.11%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  20. 28Stomach cancer0.08%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  21. 29COPD & chronic lung disease0.07%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.6%
  22. 30Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)0.04%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.49%
  23. 31Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  24. 32Bladder cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.84%
  25. 33Oesophageal cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
  26. 34COVID-190.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
  27. 35Pancreatic cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  28. 36Kidney cancer0.02%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  29. 37Other mental health conditions0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  30. 38Melanoma (skin cancer)<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  31. 39Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  32. 40Drug use disorder<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

About these numbers. Türkiye's figures are for 2023, the year of the February earthquakes. About 50,000 earthquake deaths are counted under “other accidents”, so that cause is far higher than in an ordinary year — above all for young adults.

For people like a 17-year-old boy in Türkiye, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Türkiye (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 15–19 in Türkiye

How long people like this live: life expectancy.