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What is a 22-year-old man in Estonia most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
22
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.07%
1 in 1,528
Next 10 years
0.92%
1 in 109
Life expectancy
75
about 53 more years on average
The surpriseAt 22, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's suicide.
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Suicide26%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  2. 02Accidental poisoning & overdose18%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  3. 03Road accidents9.5%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
  4. 04Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)5.8%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
  5. 05Drowning5.3%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
  6. 06Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.3%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  7. 07Other accidents3.1%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  8. 08Heart failure & other heart disease3.0%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.6%
Show the other 23 causes26% together
  1. 09Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)2.7%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  2. 10Falls2.4%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  3. 11Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.1%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  4. 12Other cancers2.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  5. 13Homicide2.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
  6. 14Stroke2.0%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
  7. 15Pneumonia & flu1.9%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  8. 16Brain cancer1.5%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  9. 17Other digestive disease1.4%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  10. 18Leukaemia & lymphoma1.3%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  11. 19Heart attack & coronary heart disease1.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 17%
  12. 20Congenital conditions1.1%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  13. 21Diabetes0.96%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  14. 22Melanoma (skin cancer)0.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  15. 23Other lung disease0.75%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.55%
  16. 24High blood pressure & other circulatory disease0.74%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 16%
  17. 25Other causes0.60%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  18. 26Stomach cancer0.30%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  19. 27Colorectal cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
  20. 28Oesophageal cancer0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.77%
  21. 29Alcohol use disorder0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  22. 30Other mental health conditions0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  23. 31Kidney disease0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call the emotional support line on 116 123 (10:00–24:00) — free and confidential; at other times, call 112 (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 22-year-old man in Estonia, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Estonia (2018, 2019 and 2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 20–24 in Estonia

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 22-year-old man in Estonia

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on Estonian Health Insurance Fund (Tervisekassa) screening and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.