Free risk check · real data

What is a 42-year-old man in Ireland most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.12%

1 in 840

Next 10 years

1.8%

1 in 54

Life expectancy

about 40 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease12%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
02Accidental poisoning & overdose10%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.45%
03Suicide7.8%
0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
04Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)5.7%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
05Colorectal cancer5.0%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
06Other cancers4.2%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
07Other digestive disease3.5%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
08Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.5%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%

Show the other 32 causes49% together

09Lung cancer3.4%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
10Stroke3.4%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.5%
11Heart failure & other heart disease3.3%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.5%
12Brain cancer3.0%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.68%
13Other causes2.2%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
14Other accidents2.2%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
15Oesophageal cancer2.0%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
16High blood pressure & other circulatory disease2.0%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
17Leukaemia & lymphoma1.8%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
18Drowning1.8%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
19Road accidents1.8%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.15%
20COPD & chronic lung disease1.8%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
21Pancreatic cancer1.7%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
22Falls1.6%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
23Pneumonia & flu1.6%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
24Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.5%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
25Stomach cancer1.4%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.98%
26Other lung disease1.3%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
27Liver cancer1.3%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
28Kidney cancer1.3%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
29Alcohol use disorder1.3%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
30Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.2%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
31Melanoma (skin cancer)1.1%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
32Congenital conditions1.0%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
33Diabetes0.75%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
34Homicide0.69%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
35Drug use disorder0.65%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
36COVID-190.50%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
37Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.43%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
38Kidney disease0.26%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
39Bladder cancer0.23%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
40Prostate cancer0.11%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Samaritans on 116 123 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 42-year-old man in Ireland, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Ireland (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 40–44 in Ireland

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 42-year-old man in Ireland

Blood pressure check
every year from 40 (every 3 years before)
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40 (men) / 50 (women), then as your doctor advises
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor

Based on the HSE National Screening Service and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.