Free risk check · real data

What is a 47-year-old man in Canada most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.26%

1 in 391

Next 10 years

3.8%

1 in 26

Life expectancy

about 35 more years on average

The surpriseAt 47, the top risk in the next 10 years isn't aging — it's accidental poisoning & overdose.

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Accidental poisoning & overdose13%
0.51% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.96%
02Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
0.49% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
03Suicide6.3%
0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%
04Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)4.5%
0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
05Lung cancer4.1%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
06Colorectal cancer4.0%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
07Heart failure & other heart disease3.5%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
08Other cancers3.4%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%

Show the other 36 causes48% together

09High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.3%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
10Diabetes3.2%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
11Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.1%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
12Other digestive disease2.6%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
13Stroke2.5%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
14Road accidents2.4%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
15Other causes2.4%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
16Pancreatic cancer2.4%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
17Leukaemia & lymphoma2.1%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
18Brain cancer2.0%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.61%
19Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.7%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
20Alcohol use disorder1.6%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
21Oesophageal cancer1.5%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
22COPD & chronic lung disease1.5%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
23Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.4%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.79%
24Pneumonia & flu1.4%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
25Liver cancer1.4%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
26Other accidents1.3%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.84%
27Other lung disease0.99%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
28Kidney cancer0.97%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.69%
29Falls0.94%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
30Stomach cancer0.92%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
31Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.78%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
32Congenital conditions0.77%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.12%
33Kidney disease0.72%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
34Prostate cancer0.63%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.59%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
36COVID-190.50%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
37Drug use disorder0.43%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
38Bladder cancer0.42%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
39Homicide0.42%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
40Drowning0.28%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
41Dementia & Alzheimer's0.14%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
42Other mental health conditions0.12%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
43Parkinson's disease0.10%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
44Breast cancer0.05%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide Crisis Helpline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 47-year-old man in Canada, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Canada (2023–2024), Statistics Canada. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 45–49 in Canada

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 47-year-old man in Canada

Blood pressure check
every year from 40 (every 3 years before)
Flu vaccine
every fall — recommended for everyone
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40 (men) / 50 (women), then as your doctor advises
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor
Prostate cancer in the family — PSA test
from 45 (a father or brother diagnosed before 60), if you choose to be tested · ask your doctor

Based on the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care and NACI. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.