Free risk check · real data

What is a 47-year-old man in Germany most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.24%

1 in 413

Next 10 years

4.0%

1 in 25

Life expectancy

about 33 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease12%
0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
02Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)7.5%
0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
03Lung cancer6.5%
0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
04Suicide5.2%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
05High blood pressure & other circulatory disease5.0%
0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%
06Heart failure & other heart disease4.7%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.1%
07Other cancers4.0%
0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
08Alcohol use disorder3.6%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.70%

Show the other 37 causes52% together

09Colorectal cancer3.6%
0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
10Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.3%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
11Other causes3.2%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
12Other digestive disease3.2%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
13Stroke3.1%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
14Pancreatic cancer2.7%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
15COPD & chronic lung disease2.4%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
16Diabetes2.3%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
17Mouth, throat & larynx cancer2.1%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
18Brain cancer2.1%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
19Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.0%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
20Leukaemia & lymphoma1.9%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
21Oesophageal cancer1.7%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.84%
22Stomach cancer1.6%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
23Other accidents1.5%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
24Road accidents1.4%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
25Falls1.3%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
26Liver cancer1.2%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
27Other mental health conditions1.0%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
28Drug use disorder1.0%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
29Accidental poisoning & overdose0.98%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
30Pneumonia & flu0.98%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
31Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.96%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
32Other lung disease0.93%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
33COVID-190.82%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.75%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
35Kidney cancer0.72%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
36Prostate cancer0.71%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
37Kidney disease0.69%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
38Congenital conditions0.61%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
39Bladder cancer0.39%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.87%
40Drowning0.21%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
41Dementia & Alzheimer's0.15%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.4%
42Homicide0.15%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
43Parkinson's disease0.09%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
44Complications around birth0.08%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
45Breast cancer0.06%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 47-year-old man in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 45–49 in Germany

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 47-year-old man in Germany

Blood pressure check
every 3 years from 35 — the Check-up 35 (blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar)
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
every 3 years from 35 — part of the Check-up 35
Skin cancer check
every 2 years from 35
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35 — part of the Check-up 35

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor
Prostate cancer in the family — PSA test
from 45 (a father or brother diagnosed before 60), if you choose to be tested · ask your doctor

Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.