Free risk check · real data

What is a 47-year-old man in Poland most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.45%

1 in 223

Next 10 years

6.9%

1 in 15

Life expectancy

about 30 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease10%
0.72% chance over 10 years · lifetime 18%
02Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)9.1%
0.62% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
03Heart failure & other heart disease6.2%
0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
04Stroke5.8%
0.40% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.5%
05Lung cancer5.0%
0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.6%
06Suicide4.8%
0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.95%
07High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.5%
0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.1%
08Other cancers4.4%
0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.9%

Show the other 36 causes50% together

09Other digestive disease4.3%
0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
10Pneumonia & flu4.1%
0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.6%
11Alcohol use disorder4.0%
0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.90%
12Mouth, throat & larynx cancer3.6%
0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
13Colorectal cancer3.2%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
14Other accidents2.6%
0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
15Diabetes2.1%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
16Road accidents1.9%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.44%
17Accidental poisoning & overdose1.9%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.36%
18Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.9%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.71%
19Falls1.9%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
20Pancreatic cancer1.6%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
21Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)1.6%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
22Stomach cancer1.5%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
23Brain cancer1.5%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.63%
24Leukaemia & lymphoma1.4%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
25Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.2%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
26Oesophageal cancer1.2%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
27Other causes1.1%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
28Other lung disease1.1%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
29Liver cancer0.86%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.62%
30Kidney cancer0.76%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
31COPD & chronic lung disease0.64%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
32Bladder cancer0.64%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
33Prostate cancer0.59%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
34Drowning0.55%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
35Kidney disease0.51%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
36Melanoma (skin cancer)0.48%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.40%
37COVID-190.32%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
38Other mental health conditions0.25%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
39Homicide0.21%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
40Congenital conditions0.08%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
41Breast cancer0.05%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
42Dementia & Alzheimer's0.03%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.94%
43Parkinson's disease0.03%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
44Drug use disorder0.02%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 800 70 22 22, the 24-hour support line for adults in crisis — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 47-year-old man in Poland, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Poland (2023–2024), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 45–49 in Poland

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 47-year-old man in Poland

Blood pressure check
every 5 years from 20 — free in the NFZ “Moje Zdrowie” health check (every 5 years to 49, every 3 years from 50)
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40 (men) / 50 (women) — free in the NFZ “Moje Zdrowie” health check (every 5 years to 49, every 3 years from 50)
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35 — fasting glucose is free in the NFZ “Moje Zdrowie” health check (every 5 years to 49, every 3 years from 50)

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor
Prostate cancer in the family — PSA test
from 45 (a father or brother diagnosed before 60), if you choose to be tested · ask your doctor

Based on NFZ screening programmes and the “Moje Zdrowie” health check. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.