Free risk check · real data

What is a 52-year-old man in Germany most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.40%

1 in 247

Next 10 years

6.7%

1 in 15

Life expectancy

about 28 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
0.84% chance over 10 years · lifetime 14%
02Lung cancer8.7%
0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
03Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)6.3%
0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.8%
0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.4%
05Heart failure & other heart disease4.6%
0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.2%
06Other cancers4.3%
0.29% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
07Suicide3.6%
0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
08Colorectal cancer3.6%
0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%

Show the other 37 causes51% together

09COPD & chronic lung disease3.6%
0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
10Stroke3.3%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
11Other digestive disease3.2%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
12Pancreatic cancer3.1%
0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
13Alcohol use disorder3.0%
0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
14Other causes2.9%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
15Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.9%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
16Mouth, throat & larynx cancer2.3%
0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
17Diabetes2.3%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
18Oesophageal cancer2.0%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
19Leukaemia & lymphoma2.0%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
20Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.8%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
21Brain cancer1.7%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.54%
22Stomach cancer1.5%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
23Liver cancer1.4%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
24Falls1.3%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
25Prostate cancer1.2%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
26Other accidents1.2%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.92%
27Pneumonia & flu1.1%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
28COVID-191.1%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
29Other lung disease1.1%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
30Road accidents0.98%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
31Other mental health conditions0.86%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
32Kidney cancer0.82%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
33Kidney disease0.73%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
34Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.67%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.67%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
36Congenital conditions0.51%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
37Bladder cancer0.51%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
38Accidental poisoning & overdose0.47%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.07%
39Drug use disorder0.43%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
40Dementia & Alzheimer's0.33%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.5%
41Parkinson's disease0.19%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
42Drowning0.15%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
43Homicide0.07%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
44Breast cancer0.06%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
45Complications around birth0.05%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 52-year-old man in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 50–54 in Germany

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 52-year-old man in Germany

Blood pressure check
every 3 years from 35 — the Check-up 35 (blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar)
Bowel cancer screening (stool test)
from 50: a colonoscopy (twice, 10 years apart) or a stool test every 2 years
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
every 3 years from 35 — part of the Check-up 35
Skin cancer check
every 2 years from 35
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35 — part of the Check-up 35

If you smoke or used to:

Lung cancer screening (low-dose CT)
yearly low-dose CT, ages 50–75, after 25+ years of heavy smoking (15+ pack-years) — if you still smoke or quit within 10 years

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor
Prostate cancer in the family — PSA test
from 45 (a father or brother diagnosed before 60), if you choose to be tested · ask your doctor

Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.