Free risk check · real data

What is a 52-year-old man in France most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.42%

1 in 239

Next 10 years

6.3%

1 in 16

Life expectancy

about 30 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Lung cancer12%
0.76% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.0%
02Heart attack & coronary heart disease7.4%
0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.7%
03Other cancers6.6%
0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.8%
04Suicide5.1%
0.32% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
05Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)4.7%
0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
06Heart failure & other heart disease3.7%
0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.0%
07Pancreatic cancer3.6%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
08Colorectal cancer3.5%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%

Show the other 37 causes53% together

09Stroke3.3%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.9%
10Other digestive disease3.0%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
11Other accidents3.0%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
12High blood pressure & other circulatory disease3.0%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
13Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.0%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
14Liver cancer2.8%
0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
15Alcohol use disorder2.7%
0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.46%
16Mouth, throat & larynx cancer2.7%
0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.97%
17Other causes2.2%
0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
18Leukaemia & lymphoma2.1%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
19Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)2.1%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
20Brain cancer1.9%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
21COPD & chronic lung disease1.7%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
22Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.7%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
23Oesophageal cancer1.7%
0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.78%
24Diabetes1.7%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
25Other lung disease1.6%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
26Stomach cancer1.5%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
27Other mental health conditions1.3%
0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
28Falls1.2%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
29Prostate cancer1.1%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
30Road accidents1.0%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
31Pneumonia & flu0.99%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
32Kidney cancer0.96%
0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.68%
33Bladder cancer0.81%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
34COVID-190.71%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.57%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
36Congenital conditions0.52%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.52%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
38Kidney disease0.48%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
39Drowning0.32%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
40Drug use disorder0.25%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
41Dementia & Alzheimer's0.22%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
42Homicide0.17%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
43Parkinson's disease0.15%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
44Breast cancer0.07%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
45Complications around birth<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call 3114, the national suicide prevention line — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 52-year-old man in France, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for France (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 50–54 in France

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 52-year-old man in France

Blood pressure check
every year from 40 — also checked at the free “Mon bilan prévention” (45–50, 60–65, 70–75)
Bowel cancer screening (stool test)
every 2 years, ages 50–74 (home stool test)
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40 (men) / 50 (women) — included in “Mon bilan prévention” at 45–50
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35

If you smoke or used to:

Lung cancer screening (low-dose CT)
if you smoke or smoked heavily, ages 50–74 — ask whether it's offered

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor
Prostate cancer in the family — PSA test
from 45 (a father or brother diagnosed before 60), if you choose to be tested · ask your doctor

Based on the Assurance maladie screening programmes and the 2025 French vaccine calendar. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.