Odainn
Free risk check · real data

What is a 52-year-old man in Italy most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
52
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.29%
1 in 349
Next 10 years
4.6%
1 in 22
Life expectancy
83
about 31 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease9.5%
    0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.8%
  2. 02Lung cancer9.4%
    0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.2%
  3. 03Other cancers5.7%
    0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
  4. 04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.8%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
  5. 05Colorectal cancer4.6%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.1%
  6. 06Heart failure & other heart disease4.4%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.7%
  7. 07Pancreatic cancer4.0%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  8. 08Stroke3.9%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.2%
Show the other 37 causes54% together
  1. 09Liver cancer3.4%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  2. 10Other digestive disease3.4%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
  3. 11Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)3.4%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  4. 12Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)3.2%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
  5. 13Other causes3.2%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  6. 14Leukaemia & lymphoma3.0%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 15Diabetes2.8%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.6%
  8. 16Suicide2.8%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.51%
  9. 17Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.7%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  10. 18Brain cancer2.6%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.63%
  11. 19Mouth, throat & larynx cancer2.4%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
  12. 20Stomach cancer2.3%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  13. 21Road accidents1.8%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  14. 22Other accidents1.7%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  15. 23COPD & chronic lung disease1.5%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  16. 24Other lung disease1.3%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  17. 25Kidney cancer1.2%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  18. 26COVID-191.2%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.0%
  19. 27Oesophageal cancer1.1%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.39%
  20. 28Prostate cancer1.0%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  21. 29Pneumonia & flu0.99%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  22. 30Melanoma (skin cancer)0.97%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.41%
  23. 31Bladder cancer0.86%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  24. 32Other mental health conditions0.84%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  25. 33Falls0.83%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  26. 34Congenital conditions0.76%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  27. 35Kidney disease0.49%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  28. 36Alcohol use disorder0.29%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  29. 37Accidental poisoning & overdose0.27%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  30. 38Parkinson's disease0.26%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  31. 39Dementia & Alzheimer's0.25%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  32. 40Drug use disorder0.23%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  33. 41Drowning0.16%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  34. 42Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.15%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
  35. 43Homicide0.13%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
  36. 44Breast cancer0.06%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
  37. 45Complications around birth0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Telefono Amico on 02 2327 2327 (normal call rate) — confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 52-year-old man in Italy, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Italy (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 50–54 in Italy

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 52-year-old man in Italy

If you smoke or used to:

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on the Italian LEA screening programmes (regions vary) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.