Odainn
Free risk check · real data

What is a 57-year-old man in Germany most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
57
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.67%
1 in 149
Next 10 years
11%
1 in 9
Life expectancy
81
about 24 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
    1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
  2. 02Lung cancer10%
    1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
  3. 03Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)5.0%
    0.54% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  4. 04Heart failure & other heart disease4.8%
    0.52% chance over 10 years · lifetime 9.3%
  5. 05High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.8%
    0.52% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.5%
  6. 06COPD & chronic lung disease4.7%
    0.52% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
  7. 07Other cancers4.6%
    0.50% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.0%
  8. 08Stroke3.7%
    0.41% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.0%
Show the other 37 causes49% together
  1. 09Colorectal cancer3.6%
    0.39% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  2. 10Other digestive disease3.2%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  3. 11Pancreatic cancer3.1%
    0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  4. 12Other causes2.7%
    0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  5. 13Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.6%
    0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  6. 14Suicide2.4%
    0.26% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  7. 15Diabetes2.3%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
  8. 16Alcohol use disorder2.3%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.58%
  9. 17Mouth, throat & larynx cancer2.2%
    0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.84%
  10. 18Leukaemia & lymphoma2.2%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  11. 19Oesophageal cancer2.0%
    0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.81%
  12. 20Prostate cancer1.9%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  13. 21Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.8%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
  14. 22Liver cancer1.6%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  15. 23Stomach cancer1.5%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.86%
  16. 24COVID-191.4%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.3%
  17. 25Brain cancer1.3%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.50%
  18. 26Pneumonia & flu1.3%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
  19. 27Falls1.3%
    0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
  20. 28Other lung disease1.2%
    0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  21. 29Other accidents0.99%
    0.11% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.91%
  22. 30Kidney cancer0.86%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.60%
  23. 31Kidney disease0.81%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  24. 32Other mental health conditions0.71%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.28%
  25. 33Road accidents0.67%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
  26. 34Bladder cancer0.64%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
  27. 35Dementia & Alzheimer's0.60%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  28. 36Melanoma (skin cancer)0.51%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
  29. 37Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.48%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.29%
  30. 38Parkinson's disease0.37%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
  31. 39Congenital conditions0.34%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.09%
  32. 40Accidental poisoning & overdose0.23%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  33. 41Drug use disorder0.16%
    0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  34. 42Drowning0.10%
    0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
  35. 43Breast cancer0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  36. 44Complications around birth0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
  37. 45Homicide0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 57-year-old man in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 55–59 in Germany

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 57-year-old man in Germany

If you smoke or used to:

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.