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Free risk check · real data

What is a 57-year-old man in the United Kingdom most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country
Age
57
Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months
0.62%
1 in 161
Next 10 years
9.0%
1 in 11
Life expectancy
82
about 25 more years on average
Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

  1. 01Heart attack & coronary heart disease18%
    1.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
  2. 02Lung cancer7.5%
    0.67% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
  3. 03COPD & chronic lung disease5.2%
    0.47% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.6%
  4. 04Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)4.8%
    0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.0%
  5. 05Other cancers4.6%
    0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.4%
  6. 06High blood pressure & other circulatory disease4.2%
    0.38% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  7. 07Colorectal cancer4.1%
    0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.9%
  8. 08Stroke3.7%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.1%
Show the other 37 causes48% together
  1. 09Other digestive disease3.7%
    0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
  2. 10Heart failure & other heart disease3.1%
    0.27% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.7%
  3. 11Oesophageal cancer2.8%
    0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  4. 12Pancreatic cancer2.6%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
  5. 13Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.5%
    0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  6. 14Leukaemia & lymphoma2.5%
    0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
  7. 15Prostate cancer2.3%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.3%
  8. 16Pneumonia & flu2.2%
    0.20% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.7%
  9. 17Mouth, throat & larynx cancer2.2%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.83%
  10. 18Other causes2.1%
    0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
  11. 19Suicide2.0%
    0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.38%
  12. 20Liver cancer1.9%
    0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
  13. 21Other lung disease1.7%
    0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
  14. 22Diabetes1.7%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
  15. 23Brain cancer1.6%
    0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.57%
  16. 24Accidental poisoning & overdose1.4%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.19%
  17. 25Kidney cancer1.3%
    0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  18. 26Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.1%
    0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
  19. 27Stomach cancer0.99%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.65%
  20. 28Falls0.98%
    0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
  21. 29COVID-190.92%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
  22. 30Bladder cancer0.87%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.4%
  23. 31Dementia & Alzheimer's0.86%
    0.08% chance over 10 years · lifetime 11%
  24. 32Alcohol use disorder0.78%
    0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.16%
  25. 33Other accidents0.68%
    0.06% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
  26. 34Melanoma (skin cancer)0.59%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.47%
  27. 35Congenital conditions0.55%
    0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.11%
  28. 36Road accidents0.43%
    0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
  29. 37Parkinson's disease0.39%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
  30. 38Kidney disease0.38%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.76%
  31. 39Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.31%
    0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
  32. 40Drowning0.09%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  33. 41Homicide0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  34. 42Other mental health conditions0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
  35. 43Drug use disorder0.05%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
  36. 44Breast cancer0.03%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
  37. 45Complications around birth<0.01%
    <0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call Samaritans on 116 123 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 57-year-old man in the United Kingdom, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United Kingdom (2023–2024), ONS, NRS and NISRA. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

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Full page with comparisons: men aged 55–59 in the United Kingdom

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 57-year-old man in the United Kingdom

If you smoke or used to:

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Based on NHS screening programmes, the NHS Health Check and the NHS vaccination schedule. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal
Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.