Free risk check · real data

What is a 57-year-old man in the United States most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

0.89%

1 in 113

Next 10 years

12%

1 in 8

Life expectancy

about 24 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease15%
1.8% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
02High blood pressure & other circulatory disease6.2%
0.76% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.1%
03Lung cancer5.9%
0.72% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.2%
04Heart failure & other heart disease5.9%
0.71% chance over 10 years · lifetime 8.2%
05Accidental poisoning & overdose4.5%
0.55% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.77%
06Diabetes4.5%
0.55% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.2%
07COPD & chronic lung disease4.0%
0.48% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.8%
08Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)3.8%
0.46% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%

Show the other 37 causes50% together

09Stroke3.7%
0.45% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.4%
10Other cancers3.6%
0.44% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.4%
11Other causes3.4%
0.42% chance over 10 years · lifetime 4.1%
12Colorectal cancer2.7%
0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
13Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)2.7%
0.33% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
14Other digestive disease2.5%
0.30% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
15Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)2.3%
0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
16Pancreatic cancer2.3%
0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
17Suicide2.3%
0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
18Liver cancer2.0%
0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.1%
19Road accidents2.0%
0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.66%
20Leukaemia & lymphoma1.8%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
21Other lung disease1.8%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
22Kidney disease1.8%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.2%
23Prostate cancer1.5%
0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
24Alcohol use disorder1.4%
0.17% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
25Pneumonia & flu1.3%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
26Oesophageal cancer1.3%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.72%
27Mouth, throat & larynx cancer1.3%
0.15% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.66%
28Other accidents1.0%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.66%
29Brain cancer0.96%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
30Falls0.96%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.9%
31Kidney cancer0.85%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.59%
32Dementia & Alzheimer's0.81%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 7.3%
33COVID-190.79%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
34Stomach cancer0.58%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.37%
35Bladder cancer0.56%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.98%
36Homicide0.44%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.10%
37Parkinson's disease0.39%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
38Melanoma (skin cancer)0.39%
0.05% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.35%
39Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.35%
0.04% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
40Drug use disorder0.24%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
41Congenital conditions0.24%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
42Drowning0.16%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
43Other mental health conditions0.14%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
44Breast cancer0.04%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
45Complications around birth<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 57-year-old man in the United States, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for the United States (2023–2024), CDC. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 55–59 in the United States

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 57-year-old man in the United States

Blood pressure check
every year from 40 (every 3–5 years before)
Colorectal cancer screening
ages 45–75 — a stool test (FIT) every year, or a colonoscopy every 10 years
Flu vaccine
every fall — recommended for all adults
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
from 40, every 5 years or as your doctor advises (earlier with risk factors)
Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal)
from 50 — one or two shots, depending on the vaccine
Prostate cancer test (PSA) — decide with your doctor
ages 55–69, if you choose to be tested · ask your doctor
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35
Shingles vaccine
2 doses, from 50
Hepatitis C test
once, ages 18–79
HIV test
at least once, ages 15–65

If you smoke or used to:

Lung cancer screening (low-dose CT)
every year, ages 50–80, if you have smoked 20 pack-years and still smoke or quit within 15 years

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor

Based on USPSTF recommendations and the CDC adult immunization schedule. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.