Free risk check · real data

What is a 72-year-old man in Bulgaria most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

4.6%

1 in 22

Next 10 years

50%

about 5 in 10

Life expectancy

about 11 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart failure & other heart disease20%
9.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 22%
02Stroke19%
9.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 21%
03Heart attack & coronary heart disease13%
6.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 13%
04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease11%
5.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 12%
05Lung cancer4.5%
2.2% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
06Colorectal cancer3.3%
1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
07Pneumonia & flu2.7%
1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
08Prostate cancer2.6%
1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%

Show the other 34 causes24% together

09Other digestive disease2.6%
1.3% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.4%
10Kidney disease2.2%
1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
11Other cancers2.0%
1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
12COPD & chronic lung disease1.6%
0.79% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
13Other lung disease1.5%
0.75% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
14Diabetes1.5%
0.75% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.3%
15COVID-191.4%
0.69% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.6%
16Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)1.3%
0.66% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.82%
17Stomach cancer1.2%
0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.89%
18Bladder cancer1.2%
0.58% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.95%
19Pancreatic cancer1.1%
0.54% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
20Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.90%
0.45% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.61%
21Leukaemia & lymphoma0.86%
0.43% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.63%
22Liver cancer0.75%
0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.48%
23Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)0.48%
0.24% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.34%
24Brain cancer0.46%
0.23% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
25Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)0.43%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.42%
26Kidney cancer0.42%
0.21% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
27Suicide0.39%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.32%
28Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.35%
0.18% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.30%
29Falls0.31%
0.16% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
30Other accidents0.26%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
31Parkinson's disease0.26%
0.13% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.23%
32Oesophageal cancer0.25%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.14%
33Road accidents0.25%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.17%
34Other causes0.21%
0.10% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.21%
35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.14%
0.07% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.13%
36Dementia & Alzheimer's0.06%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.08%
37Breast cancer0.06%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.06%
38Drowning0.04%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.04%
39Accidental poisoning & overdose0.02%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
40Homicide0.02%
0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.02%
41Other mental health conditions0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.01%
42Alcohol use disorder<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, free, confidential support is available.

For people like a 72-year-old man in Bulgaria, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Bulgaria (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 70–74 in Bulgaria

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 72-year-old man in Bulgaria

Blood pressure check
every year from 40 (every 3 years before)
Bowel cancer screening (stool test)
not in the general check-up — a stool test every 2 years is covered if you're at higher risk (e.g. family history); ask your GP
Flu vaccine
every autumn — from 60 or 65, depending on your country
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
every 5 years, men from 40 and women from 50, with a heart-risk score — in your free yearly preventive check-up (NZOK)
Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal)
from 60 or 65, depending on your country — ask your doctor
Prostate cancer test (PSA)
PSA blood test every year from 45 — in your free yearly preventive check-up (NZOK)
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35

If you smoke or used to:

Lung cancer screening (low-dose CT)
if you smoke or smoked heavily, ages 50–74 — ask whether it's offered
Aortic aneurysm scan (ultrasound)
once, men 65+ who have ever smoked · ask your doctor

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor

Based on Bulgaria's preventive check-up (NZOK, Ordinance No. 8) and European guidelines. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.