Free risk check · real data

What is a 72-year-old man in Germany most likely to die from?

Move the controls. The answer comes from official mortality statistics for 37 countries in Europe and North America — and it surprises almost everyone.

Country

Age

Sex at birth

Official mortality statistics are published by sex at birth, which is why we ask.

Next 12 months

2.8%

1 in 36

Next 10 years

36%

about 4 in 10

Life expectancy

about 13 more years on average

Most likely causes

Share of all deaths in the next 10 years.

01Heart attack & coronary heart disease14%
4.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 15%
02Heart failure & other heart disease7.2%
2.6% chance over 10 years · lifetime 10%
03Lung cancer6.6%
2.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
04High blood pressure & other circulatory disease5.3%
1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.9%
05Stroke5.2%
1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 5.2%
06COPD & chronic lung disease5.1%
1.9% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.8%
07Other cancers4.6%
1.7% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.9%
08Dementia & Alzheimer's4.2%
1.5% chance over 10 years · lifetime 6.8%

Show the other 37 causes48% together

09Prostate cancer3.7%
1.4% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
10COVID-193.1%
1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.7%
11Other causes3.0%
1.1% chance over 10 years · lifetime 3.5%
12Other digestive disease2.9%
1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.8%
13Leukaemia & lymphoma2.9%
1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
14Colorectal cancer2.8%
1.0% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.1%
15Diabetes2.7%
0.98% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.6%
16Pancreatic cancer2.4%
0.87% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.5%
17Pneumonia & flu2.2%
0.80% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.7%
18Parkinson's disease2.1%
0.76% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.0%
19Falls1.8%
0.67% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.5%
20Infections (e.g. sepsis, hepatitis, HIV)1.8%
0.66% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.8%
21Other lung disease1.8%
0.66% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.7%
22Other neurological disease (e.g. epilepsy)1.7%
0.62% chance over 10 years · lifetime 1.2%
23Kidney disease1.6%
0.60% chance over 10 years · lifetime 2.3%
24Liver cancer1.5%
0.54% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.88%
25Liver disease (incl. alcohol-related)1.5%
0.53% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.80%
26Stomach cancer1.0%
0.37% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.73%
27Mouth, throat & larynx cancer0.97%
0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
28Oesophageal cancer0.96%
0.35% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.56%
29Bladder cancer0.92%
0.34% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.93%
30Suicide0.85%
0.31% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.67%
31Other accidents0.78%
0.28% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.92%
32Kidney cancer0.69%
0.25% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.53%
33Brain cancer0.62%
0.22% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.33%
34Alcohol use disorder0.52%
0.19% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.26%
35Melanoma (skin cancer)0.39%
0.14% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.31%
36Other injuries (incl. undetermined intent)0.32%
0.12% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.25%
37Road accidents0.26%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.18%
38Other mental health conditions0.24%
0.09% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.20%
39Congenital conditions0.07%
0.03% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.05%
40Drowning0.05%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
41Breast cancer0.04%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
42Accidental poisoning & overdose0.04%
0.02% chance over 10 years · lifetime 0.03%
43Drug use disorder0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
44Complications around birth0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%
45Homicide<0.01%
<0.01% chance over 10 years · lifetime <0.01%

Some of these risks are about mental health and substances. They are among the most preventable — if you or someone you love is struggling, call TelefonSeelsorge on 0800 111 0 111 or 0800 111 0 222 — free and confidential, any time (or findahelpline.com).

For people like a 72-year-old man in Germany, not a personal prediction. Based on official mortality data for Germany (2023), Eurostat. Personal risk also depends on health and habits.

— send it to someone you love.

Full page with comparisons: men aged 70–74 in Germany

How long people like this live: life expectancy.

What to do about it

Check-ups recommended for a 72-year-old man in Germany

Blood pressure check
every 3 years from 35 — the Check-up 35 (blood pressure, cholesterol, blood sugar)
Bowel cancer screening (stool test)
from 50: a colonoscopy (twice, 10 years apart) or a stool test every 2 years
Flu vaccine
every autumn from 60
Cholesterol & heart-risk check
every 3 years from 35 — part of the Check-up 35
Aortic aneurysm scan (ultrasound)
once, men from 65 (ultrasound)
Pneumonia vaccine (pneumococcal)
once from 60
Skin cancer check
every 2 years from 35
Blood sugar test (diabetes)
every 3 years from 35 — part of the Check-up 35
Shingles vaccine
2 doses, from 60

If you smoke or used to:

Lung cancer screening (low-dose CT)
yearly low-dose CT, ages 50–75, after 25+ years of heavy smoking (15+ pack-years) — if you still smoke or quit within 10 years

If a parent, brother, sister or child had:

Bowel cancer in the family — earlier bowel check
often a colonoscopy every 5 years from 40 (or 10 years before your relative's age at diagnosis, if earlier) · ask your doctor

Based on statutory health insurance (G-BA) screening and STIKO vaccine recommendations. Your doctor may suggest more, or sooner, depending on your health. Educational, not medical advice.

Make it personal

Do you smoke?

We never store your answer with anything that identifies you — it stays on this device until you create an account, then carries over. Educational, not medical advice.